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Julia NordFX

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About Julia NordFX

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  1. Forex Forecast for 1-5 February 2016 First, about last week’s predictions: - EUR/USD once again proved that the majority opinion may be wrong. The pair’s bullish sentiment was supported by only 25% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 but it is they who turned out to be right – straight from the market opening, the pair went up sharply and then, as predicted, plunged as sharply almost to the level of the start of the week; - a third of the experts talked about GBP/USD’s rise to 1.4550 while another third supported a transition into a sideways trend in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. The weekly chart shows that both groups were right as the pair stayed in this corridor all five days, occasionally attempting to break its upper boundary and reach the target height. However, none of these attempts succeeded, and the pair ended up near the level of the start of the week; - there are times when all forecasts, including alternative ones, prove incorrect. This is what happened when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced a negative interest rate policy for the first time, which resulted in the yen’s fall against all 16 major currencies. The USD/JPY pair needed just 1 day (29 January) to return to the level around which it had revolved during the past year; - two weeks ago, the immediate target for USD/CHF was a rise to 1.0250. Last week, graphical analysis lowered it to 1.0210, which it shouldn’t have done as the pair easily reached 1.0255 on Friday, countering the rush to change forecasts. Forecast for Coming Week Summing up the views of scores of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said: - opinions on EUR/USD once again turned out quite unanimous – 60% of the analysts, 100% of the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis at D1 vote for a fall to 1.0700 at least. With that, the pair may first rebound to resistance at 1.0990, then return to support at 1.0800, break through it and drop to 1.0700 and then further down to support at 1.0560; - as for GBP/USD, 100% of the indicators look downward. However, the analysts differ. The indicators’ readings are supported by only 12% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair will go down gradually to support at 1.4120. A sideways trend is backed by 38% of the experts. Graphical analysis on D1 and the remaining 50% of the experts reckon that GBP/USD will rebound further upward, trying to reach 1.4630. With this, graphical analysis indicates that after the rebound the pair will return to the current level of 1.4240 by the end of February; - the decision by the Bank of Japan left graphical analysis and most experts perplexed. At the same time, 25% of the experts and 90% of the indicators insist USD/JPY should continue to rise up to 122.30-123.00, and only one analyst believes that the pair will return to January’s main support of 116.50; - most experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that USD/CHF will be moving in a 1.0200-1.0310 sideways channel for some time. However, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to support at 0.9920 and then enter a sideways corridor of 0.9920-1.0080. In the longer term, 40% of the analysts believe that 1.0310 is not the limit and the pair may rise to 1.0500. Roman Butko, NordFX
  2. Forex Forecast for 1-5 February 2016 First, about last week’s predictions: - EUR/USD once again proved that the majority opinion may be wrong. The pair’s bullish sentiment was supported by only 25% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 but it is they who turned out to be right – straight from the market opening, the pair went up sharply and then, as predicted, plunged as sharply almost to the level of the start of the week; - a third of the experts talked about GBP/USD’s rise to 1.4550 while another third supported a transition into a sideways trend in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. The weekly chart shows that both groups were right as the pair stayed in this corridor all five days, occasionally attempting to break its upper boundary and reach the target height. However, none of these attempts succeeded, and the pair ended up near the level of the start of the week; - there are times when all forecasts, including alternative ones, prove incorrect. This is what happened when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly introduced a negative interest rate policy for the first time, which resulted in the yen’s fall against all 16 major currencies. The USD/JPY pair needed just 1 day (29 January) to return to the level around which it had revolved during the past year; - two weeks ago, the immediate target for USD/CHF was a rise to 1.0250. Last week, graphical analysis lowered it to 1.0210, which it shouldn’t have done as the pair easily reached 1.0255 on Friday, countering the rush to change forecasts. Forecast for Coming Week Summing up the views of scores of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said: - opinions on EUR/USD once again turned out quite unanimous – 60% of the analysts, 100% of the indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis at D1 vote for a fall to 1.0700 at least. With that, the pair may first rebound to resistance at 1.0990, then return to support at 1.0800, break through it and drop to 1.0700 and then further down to support at 1.0560; - as for GBP/USD, 100% of the indicators look downward. However, the analysts differ. The indicators’ readings are supported by only 12% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4. In their view, the pair will go down gradually to support at 1.4120. A sideways trend is backed by 38% of the experts. Graphical analysis on D1 and the remaining 50% of the experts reckon that GBP/USD will rebound further upward, trying to reach 1.4630. With this, graphical analysis indicates that after the rebound the pair will return to the current level of 1.4240 by the end of February; - the decision by the Bank of Japan left graphical analysis and most experts perplexed. At the same time, 25% of the experts and 90% of the indicators insist USD/JPY should continue to rise up to 122.30-123.00, and only one analyst believes that the pair will return to January’s main support of 116.50; - most experts and graphical analysis on H4 believe that USD/CHF will be moving in a 1.0200-1.0310 sideways channel for some time. However, graphical analysis on D1 insists that the pair should go down to support at 0.9920 and then enter a sideways corridor of 0.9920-1.0080. In the longer term, 40% of the analysts believe that 1.0310 is not the limit and the pair may rise to 1.0500. Roman Butko, NordFX
  3. Forex Forecast for 25-29 January 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: - the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true; - the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362; - the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October; - there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week. Forecast for Upcoming Week Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: - surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December; - the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550; - the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low; - last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks. Roman Butko, NordFX
  4. Forex Forecast for 25-29 January 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: - the experts’ opinion about EUR/USD’s bearish sentiment proved right – the pair fell by 120 points during the week. However, this is exactly how short it was of the 1.0650 low indicated by graphical analysis. Thus, the forecast came half true; - the GBP/USD pair met the expectations of the indicators, the experts and graphical analysis. The indicators had insisted on a further downtrend, and it did continue – the pair dropped another 200 points. The experts had also anticipated a rebound, which happened as well – from Thursday, the pair went up. Graphical analysis on H1 had claimed that the peak would be at 1.4370, and GBP/USD nearly got there, stopping short at 1.4362; - the forecast for USD/JPY had consisted of two stages – first, a rise to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. That transpired to a tee – on Tuesday, the pair reached resistance at 118.10, rebounded from it and got to the low of 116.00 on Wednesday. The forecast had indicated that this cycle would take all week but USD/JPY completed both stages before Thursday. During Thursday and Friday, the pair went up to the lower boundary of the triangle, which had been formed over last August - October; - there was no consensus about USD/CHF. The forecast by graphical analysis on H1 turned out to be more or less correct with some approximation – a rise to 1.01125 (the pair went up to 1.00825) and then a return to 1.0020 (the pair stopped at 1.0000). As for larger timeframes, graphical analysis on D1 had forecast quite a fast rise to 1.02500, and, in fact, USD/CHF went up sharply reaching 1.0165 by the end of the week. Forecast for Upcoming Week Generalizing the opinions of scores of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: - surprisingly, there is unanimity about EUR/USD as 75% of the analysts, all indicators on all timeframes and graphical analysis on H1 vote for a fall to 1.0650-1.0700. Alternatively, 25% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 support bullish sentiment and a rise to 1.0850-1.0900. After that, however, the pair should drop trying to reach the low of the first week of last December; - the analysts' opinions on GBP/USD are split three almost even ways – 33% for a fall to 1.4000, 33% for a rise to 1.4550 and the remaining third for a sideways trend. The indicators and graphical analysis on H4 agree with the latter, drawing a channel in a 1.4120-1.4330 range. Graphical analysis on D1 sides with those experts who speak about a further rebound upward, citing exactly the same level of 1.4550; - the indicators and graphical analysis on H4 predict that USD/JPY will rebound to 119.50. However, the experts differ again – one-third of them are for a rise, 40% are for a side trend with a 118.00 pivot point and the rest are for the pair’s return to last week’s low; - last week, graphical analysis predicted USD/CHF would soar to 1.02500. This bullish sentiment stands for this week too but with a corrected target of 1.0210, at which the pair should reverse and go back to the pivot point at 1.0080. The indicators on H4 and D1 and 70% of the experts agree with this view. The analysts set 1.0300 as the pair’s final longer-term target, followed by a drop to 0.9800, which may take 2-3 weeks. Roman Butko, NordFX
  5. The International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT) has announced the IAFT Awards winners for 2015. NordFX has been voted Best Broker of Asia. The selection went for a month from 1st to 30th December 2015, and every visitor of the awards website could vote for leaders of the Forex industry in 17 categories. We’re very thankful to all traders and experts for the trust and support extended to NordFX! We’ll certainly continue to maintain our high standards and improve the quality of service for our clients in Asia and other regions.
  6. The International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT) has announced the IAFT Awards winners for 2015. NordFX has been voted Best Broker of Asia. The selection went for a month from 1st to 30th December 2015, and every visitor of the awards website could vote for leaders of the Forex industry in 17 categories. We’re very thankful to all traders and experts for the trust and support extended to NordFX! We’ll certainly continue to maintain our high standards and improve the quality of service for our clients in Asia and other regions.
  7. Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016 For starters, a review of last week’s forecast: - the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary; - in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall; - the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one; - on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week. Forecast for Coming Week Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said: - regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of ​​1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month; - the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target; - according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this; - last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point. Roman Butko, NordFX
  8. Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016 For starters, a review of last week’s forecast: - the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary; - in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall; - the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one; - on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week. Forecast for Coming Week Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said: - regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of ​​1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month; - the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target; - according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this; - last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point. Roman Butko, NordFX
  9. Forex Forecast for 11-15 January 2016 First, about the forecast for the past week: - the forecast for EUR/USD was fully implemented during the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis, the pair first rose to resistance at 1.0900 and then went down, losing 200 points quite quickly. After that, considering the situation on stock markets, the pair returned to 1.0925, recovering the same 200 points; - it was assumed that after a certain rise, GBP/USD should reach a low of 1.4555 by mid-January. Nonetheless, this happened a week earlier as the pair arrived there last Friday; - the forecast for USD/JPY turned out correct only in terms of the trend direction. Both indicators and graphical analysis implied some advantage for the bears but no one expected that it would be so big – instead of the expected 70-100 points, the dollar lost all 300 points; - the prediction for USD/CHF was also 100% correct in regards to the trend direction. The pair was supposed to rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. However, developments on stock markets sharply increased the pair’s volatility, and, as a result, it was able to get up to 1.0123 and then went down to support at 0.9923. Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward: - on their return from holidays, the analysts predict a sideways trend for EUR/USD in a 1.0750-1.1000 range. Graphical analysis on H1 agrees with this, predicting first a rebound from the upper boundary, a drop and again a return to the upper levels of the range. On larger timeframes, graphical analysis of D1 and 67% of the indicators on W1 continue to insist on the pair's drop at least to around 1.0450-1.0515 within 10-14 days; - it’s quite clear that all indicators point downward for GBP/USD. However, graphical analysis on all timeframes and most experts agree that the pair has already reached its local bottom and will be oscillating around a 1.4500 pivot point during the week. The main support is at 1.4450, resistance – 1.4600; - according to the analysts and the readings of graphical analysis, the USD/JPY pair has also hit its local low and is expected to enter a sideways trend in a 117.20-119.50 range. The pivot point will be at 117.90, and, in line with graphical analysis on H4, the pair should rise over this level in the first half of the week and drop to last Friday’s values by the end of the week; - the scenario of the second half of December may replay for USD/CHF. At least, it’s echoed by the analysts as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. According to this forecast, the pair will be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. In the short run, graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to rebound from support at 0.9920 and move to resistance at 1.0015, after which the pair should go down again, bounce off the said support level and try to break through resistance in an effort to reach 1.0050. Roman Butko, NordFX
  10. Forex Forecast for 11-15 January 2016 First, about the forecast for the past week: - the forecast for EUR/USD was fully implemented during the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis, the pair first rose to resistance at 1.0900 and then went down, losing 200 points quite quickly. After that, considering the situation on stock markets, the pair returned to 1.0925, recovering the same 200 points; - it was assumed that after a certain rise, GBP/USD should reach a low of 1.4555 by mid-January. Nonetheless, this happened a week earlier as the pair arrived there last Friday; - the forecast for USD/JPY turned out correct only in terms of the trend direction. Both indicators and graphical analysis implied some advantage for the bears but no one expected that it would be so big – instead of the expected 70-100 points, the dollar lost all 300 points; - the prediction for USD/CHF was also 100% correct in regards to the trend direction. The pair was supposed to rise to 1.0700 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. However, developments on stock markets sharply increased the pair’s volatility, and, as a result, it was able to get up to 1.0123 and then went down to support at 0.9923. Forecast for the coming week. Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward: - on their return from holidays, the analysts predict a sideways trend for EUR/USD in a 1.0750-1.1000 range. Graphical analysis on H1 agrees with this, predicting first a rebound from the upper boundary, a drop and again a return to the upper levels of the range. On larger timeframes, graphical analysis of D1 and 67% of the indicators on W1 continue to insist on the pair's drop at least to around 1.0450-1.0515 within 10-14 days; - it’s quite clear that all indicators point downward for GBP/USD. However, graphical analysis on all timeframes and most experts agree that the pair has already reached its local bottom and will be oscillating around a 1.4500 pivot point during the week. The main support is at 1.4450, resistance – 1.4600; - according to the analysts and the readings of graphical analysis, the USD/JPY pair has also hit its local low and is expected to enter a sideways trend in a 117.20-119.50 range. The pivot point will be at 117.90, and, in line with graphical analysis on H4, the pair should rise over this level in the first half of the week and drop to last Friday’s values by the end of the week; - the scenario of the second half of December may replay for USD/CHF. At least, it’s echoed by the analysts as well as the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. According to this forecast, the pair will be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. In the short run, graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to rebound from support at 0.9920 and move to resistance at 1.0015, after which the pair should go down again, bounce off the said support level and try to break through resistance in an effort to reach 1.0050. Roman Butko, NordFX
  11. Forex Forecast for 4-8 January 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: - despite the differences between the indicators and graphical analysis, it was suggested that EUR/USD would hold out in the range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 until the very end of 2015. The forecast panned out as the pair rose to 1.0990 on Monday and dropped to 1.0850 on 31 December 2015; - there were differing opinions about GBP/USD as well. With that, 50% of the indicators on H4 and 83% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claimed that 1.4930 would be too strong of resistance and the pair would go down to support at 1.4740. This forecast also proved 100% correct – GBP/USD went down at once and saw in the new year at 1.4733; - the forecast for USD/JPY was multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25-121.45. It did transpire, although the oscillations were not as large as expected – the pair bounced off the said support range a few times but never managed to get over 120.65; - graphical analysis indicated that 0.9850 would become support for USD/CHF and the pair would move up from there to the landmark of 1.0000, which worked out 100%. For a second week in a row, only technical and graphical analysis has been used for the forecasts as all leading analysts are still on holidays. However, the review above shows that one may do without their advice just as well – the precision of the forecasts only improves :) Forecast for the upcoming week: - as for EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on the daily interval confidently show that the pair will continue to fall to support at 1.0515 or somewhat further to the March low of 1.0450. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair can briefly rise to resistance at 1.0900; - graphical analysis on all time frames indicates that early in the week GBP/USD should rise to 1.4800 and then by another 100-150 points. After this, the pair will move downward to last April’s low of 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January; - for USD/JPY, both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 imply some advantage for the bears. According to their readings, the pair will continue to move down but insignificantly – to support at 119.70. The main resistance will be 120.40; - all indicators point upwards for USD/CHF. Graphical analysis predicts the pair will rise to 1.0070 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. Roman Butko, NordFX
  12. Forex Forecast for 4-8 January 2016 First, a review of last week’s forecast: - despite the differences between the indicators and graphical analysis, it was suggested that EUR/USD would hold out in the range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 until the very end of 2015. The forecast panned out as the pair rose to 1.0990 on Monday and dropped to 1.0850 on 31 December 2015; - there were differing opinions about GBP/USD as well. With that, 50% of the indicators on H4 and 83% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claimed that 1.4930 would be too strong of resistance and the pair would go down to support at 1.4740. This forecast also proved 100% correct – GBP/USD went down at once and saw in the new year at 1.4733; - the forecast for USD/JPY was multiple fluctuations in the range of 120.25-121.45. It did transpire, although the oscillations were not as large as expected – the pair bounced off the said support range a few times but never managed to get over 120.65; - graphical analysis indicated that 0.9850 would become support for USD/CHF and the pair would move up from there to the landmark of 1.0000, which worked out 100%. For a second week in a row, only technical and graphical analysis has been used for the forecasts as all leading analysts are still on holidays. However, the review above shows that one may do without their advice just as well – the precision of the forecasts only improves :) Forecast for the upcoming week: - as for EUR/USD, 90% of the indicators on H4 and D1 and graphical analysis on the daily interval confidently show that the pair will continue to fall to support at 1.0515 or somewhat further to the March low of 1.0450. At the same time, graphical analysis on H1 warns that before starting the fall, the pair can briefly rise to resistance at 1.0900; - graphical analysis on all time frames indicates that early in the week GBP/USD should rise to 1.4800 and then by another 100-150 points. After this, the pair will move downward to last April’s low of 1.4555. However, this fall is not expected until mid-January; - for USD/JPY, both indicators and graphical analysis on H4 imply some advantage for the bears. According to their readings, the pair will continue to move down but insignificantly – to support at 119.70. The main resistance will be 120.40; - all indicators point upwards for USD/CHF. Graphical analysis predicts the pair will rise to 1.0070 at the start of the week and then return to the 0.9850 support level. Roman Butko, NordFX
  13. Forex Forecast for 28-31 December 2015 First, a review of last week’s predictions: - graphical analysis warned that EUR/USD would first try to break through resistance around 1.0900 and go down after a couple of unsuccessful attempts. The chart shows that there were three such attempts actually, and one of them appeared to almost reach the target. However, all the efforts ended up futile, and the pair saw Christmas at 1.0950 resistance; - the analysts were right saying that GBP/USD would enter a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point and bearish sentiment at the beginning of the week. The forecast panned out – a brief clash between the bears and the bulls around the pivot point was decisively won by the former, and the pair crashed by 100 points. However, it quickly returned to the pivot point and rose even higher – to the top boundary of the said corridor; - the forecast for USD/JPY proved correct. As expected, the bears won in this case. The pair couldn’t even break through the first resistance at 121.70 and went down to the bottom boundary of the corridor at 120.30 where it stayed until market closure; - the USD/CHF pair gave the impression that Swiss bankers closed down for the holidays – the pair went neither up nor down but remained at the pivot point of the past 3 weeks, i.e. 0.9900. Forecast for the Coming Week It has to be noted that all analysts are off for the holidays, and thus forecasts will be based on graphical and technical analysis for the time being: - as for EUR/USD, all indicators on H4 and 72% of them on D1 point strictly upward. The remaining indicators and graphical analysis, supported by the bears, persistently push the pair down. The end of the week will show which scenario is right. However, the pair is quite likely to stay within 1.0800-1.1000 till the end of 2015; - graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on H4 as well as 17% of the indicators on D1 point to GBP/USD’s rise to resistance at 1.5040. The rest of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to support at 1.4740 with strong resistance at 1.4930. As the week starts precisely from this level, it should be clearer on Monday which of the trends will prevail in the coming days; - all indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 indicates that the pair will try to recover last week’s losses – first, it will return to resistance at 121.15, then rebound to support at 120.25 and again go up to 121.45; - according to graphical analysis, 0.9850 will become support for USD/CHF. The pair will move up from there – first to 1.0000 and then to its main target of 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. The indicators differ here, though – all of them on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for USD/CHF’s fall. If the pair drops below the support level of 0.9850, it will hit the bottom around 0.9800 very quickly. Roman Butko, NordFX
  14. Forex Forecast for 28-31 December 2015 First, a review of last week’s predictions: - graphical analysis warned that EUR/USD would first try to break through resistance around 1.0900 and go down after a couple of unsuccessful attempts. The chart shows that there were three such attempts actually, and one of them appeared to almost reach the target. However, all the efforts ended up futile, and the pair saw Christmas at 1.0950 resistance; - the analysts were right saying that GBP/USD would enter a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point and bearish sentiment at the beginning of the week. The forecast panned out – a brief clash between the bears and the bulls around the pivot point was decisively won by the former, and the pair crashed by 100 points. However, it quickly returned to the pivot point and rose even higher – to the top boundary of the said corridor; - the forecast for USD/JPY proved correct. As expected, the bears won in this case. The pair couldn’t even break through the first resistance at 121.70 and went down to the bottom boundary of the corridor at 120.30 where it stayed until market closure; - the USD/CHF pair gave the impression that Swiss bankers closed down for the holidays – the pair went neither up nor down but remained at the pivot point of the past 3 weeks, i.e. 0.9900. Forecast for the Coming Week It has to be noted that all analysts are off for the holidays, and thus forecasts will be based on graphical and technical analysis for the time being: - as for EUR/USD, all indicators on H4 and 72% of them on D1 point strictly upward. The remaining indicators and graphical analysis, supported by the bears, persistently push the pair down. The end of the week will show which scenario is right. However, the pair is quite likely to stay within 1.0800-1.1000 till the end of 2015; - graphical analysis and 50% of the indicators on H4 as well as 17% of the indicators on D1 point to GBP/USD’s rise to resistance at 1.5040. The rest of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1 claim that the pair will go down to support at 1.4740 with strong resistance at 1.4930. As the week starts precisely from this level, it should be clearer on Monday which of the trends will prevail in the coming days; - all indicators point downward for USD/JPY. However, graphical analysis on H1, H4 and D1 indicates that the pair will try to recover last week’s losses – first, it will return to resistance at 121.15, then rebound to support at 120.25 and again go up to 121.45; - according to graphical analysis, 0.9850 will become support for USD/CHF. The pair will move up from there – first to 1.0000 and then to its main target of 1.0100, turning 1.0000 into support. The indicators differ here, though – all of them on H4 and 67% on D1 vote for USD/CHF’s fall. If the pair drops below the support level of 0.9850, it will hit the bottom around 0.9800 very quickly. Roman Butko, NordFX
  15. Forex Forecast for 21-25 December 2015 First, a review of last week’s forecast: - the scenario for EUR/USD, backed by most analysts and the minority of the indicators, started to pan out. The pair spent some time in a sideways trend, broke through support at 1.0900 and went down. However, that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the pair didn’t reach support at 1.0700, stopping 150 points higher; - the experts suggested that GBP/USD would be moving in a sideways channel of 1.4900-1.5250. It did happen – the pair pushed off the top boundary of the channel on Monday, went down decisively and came to a standstill at the bottom boundary of 1.4893 Friday night; - the analysts were right about USD/JPY. In their opinion, the level of 120.00 was supposed to become very strong support, pushing off which the pair was to surge to resistance at 122.20 and then to 123.20. The latter level was reached on Friday thanks to the Bank of Japan's decision about its interest rate; - there were varied opinions regarding USD/CHF again – some experts and indicators voted for a rise while others for a fall. The pair did just that – first, it went up a little, then dropped, then rose again and ended up 100 points higher in one week, although it doesn’t qualify yet as a full-on upward reversal. Forecast for the upcoming week. Summarizing the opinions of analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward: - most experts, with the indicators staying neutral, continue to insist on EUR/USD’s return to the values of the second half of November. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 elaborates that the pair may first try to break resistance at 1.0900 but after one or two unsuccessful attempts it will go down to support at 1.0700. The next support is 100 points lower; - as for GBP/USD, all indicators clearly point downward. Being aware of the upcoming Christmas holidays unlike the indicators, the analysts predict the pair will transition into a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680-1.5000 with a 1.4890 pivot point. Graphical analysis on D1 supports them and indicates further bearish sentiment; - the experts and graphical analysis on H4 reckon that USD/JPY will move sideways within 120.30-122.20. At the same time, the indicators on H4 and D1 point to the bears’ upper hand and insist that the pair won’t be able to break even the first resistance at 121.70; - the general forecast for USD/CHF remains the same – back to around 1.0000. The experts, the indicators on D1 and graphical analysis agree with this. The immediate target is resistance at 1.0100. The next resistance is around 1.0150, support remains at 0.9800. Roman Butko, NordFX
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