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  1. S&P 500 has renewed its all-time high Investors continue to monitor the third quarter's corporate earnings season, as well as assess the potential impact of the White House's attempts to raise corporate taxes. Already published the results of about 70 companies whose shares are included in the calculation of the S&P 500. Profits in 86% of cases turned out to be better than the consensus. The index of manufacturing activity in Philadelphia in October fell to 23.8 points compared with 30.7 points a month earlier. Experts expected a less significant drop in the indicator calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, that is, up to 25 points. A negative value of the index indicates a weakening of activity in the manufacturing sector of the region, a positive value indicates an increase. The index of leading economic indicators in the United States in September rose by only 0.2%, according to the research organization Conference Board, which calculates this indicator. In August, the rise was 0.8%. The Conference Board index shows the expected development of the country's economy in the next 3-6 months. It is calculated on the basis of ten key economic indicators, seven of which are known even before the publication of the indicator. US existing home sales rose 7% in September to 6.29 million homes on an annualized basis, the highest since January, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said in a report. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics predicted an average increase of 3.6%. Meanwhile, the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States has updated the minimum since the beginning of the pandemic. The number of Americans applying for benefits for the first time fell by 6,000 last week to 290,000, according to a report by the US Department of Labor. At the same time, analysts on average expected an increase to 300 thousand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday decreased by 6.26 points (0.02%) - to 35603.08 points. Meanwhile, the value of Standard & Poor's 500 increased over the day by 13.59 points (0.3%), amounting to 4549.78 points. Nasdaq Composite increased by 94.02 points (0.62%) - up to 15215.7 points. International Business Machines slightly increased revenue in July-September, but the result was worse than expected. The company's shares fell 9.6% in the trading session, becoming the leader of the decline among the Dow Jones. Chemical company Dow Inc. achieved a profitable level in the third quarter, with adjusted numbers and revenues above analyst expectations. Nevertheless, its shares lost 1.05% in price. In addition, among the components of the Dow Jones index, shares of Chevron Corp., American Express Co. fell by 1% or more. and Caterpillar. Southwest Airlines Co. returned to profitable levels in the third quarter and increased revenue better than expected. However, the airline's shares were down 1.6%. Telecommunications company AT&T Inc., one of the largest in the country, more than doubled its net profit in the last quarter, but its revenue fell due to the spin-off. Its securities fell 0.6%. At the same time, the cost of HP Inc. jumped 6.9%. The personal computer and printer company has significantly raised its annual dividend and also improved its profit forecast for the next fiscal year. Electric vehicle maker Tesla posted record net profit and revenue last quarter. The company's shares gained 3.3%.
  2. Forecast for USD/JPY on October 21, 2021 The yen has been trading at large daily volumes since the beginning of the week, however, the quotes have been changing all this time in narrow ranges at the technical level of 114.10. The Marlin Oscillator has been moving down since the beginning of the week. Taken together, this means that big players are closing positions and the decline to the first support at 113.12. Consolidation below the level may strengthen the downward correction. A full reversal will take place after the price consolidates below the MACD indicator line at 111.40. After the correction to 113.12, the growth may continue to the range of 115.80-116.15. Unless, of course, the stock markets fail. US indices closed mixed yesterday. On the four-hour scale, the price approached the MACD line, the Marlin oscillator was already in the downtrend zone. Accordingly, if the price settles below the level of 114.10, which coincides with the support of the MACD line, we expect the price to move towards the target at 113.12 - to the embedded monthly-scale price channel line.
  3. Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD on October 20 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair There was a signal to buy in EUR / USD on Tuesday, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far away from zero. Shortly after that a signal to sell appeared, and this time it provoked a large drop in the pair because traders took short positions. Then, another sell signal emerged, but it had to be ignored because the MACD line was far from zero. Afterwards, a buy signal appeared and it coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Euro rallied yesterday because of the statements from ECB members Frank Elderson and Fabio Panetta. But the situation turned around in the afternoon as Fed members Mary Daly and Michelle Bowman addressed US inflation, which attracted investor interest on dollar. Today, a lot of macro statistics are scheduled to come out, and these are EU data on CPI and ECB balance of payments, which, if exceeded expectations, could provoke another rally in EUR / USD. Another speech from ECB member Frank Elderson will also commence, followed by statements from Fed members Charles Evans, Raphael Bostic and Randal Quarles. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1656 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1696. Price will increase if EU inflation data comes out strong. Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1635, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1656 and 1.1696. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1594. Pressure may return if there are weak EU statistics and if the Fed makes statements that are in favor of dollar. Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1656, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1635 and 1.1594.
  4. Trading plan for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 19, 2021 October 19 economic calendar: Today, American data on the real estate market is expected to be published, where it is predicted that the construction of new homes, as well as the number of construction permits issued, will decrease in September. This is not the best signal for the US real estate market. Trading plan for EUR/USD on October 19: There was a high demand for long positions in the euro during the start of the Asian session. This led to an update of the local high (1.1640) of October 4. It should be noted that holding the price above the level of 1.1660 will most likely lead to a subsequent growth towards the level of 1.1700. Otherwise, the quote will return to the range of 1.1620. Trading plan for GBP/USD on October 19: It can be assumed that the subsequent resistance level is around 1.3800/1.3830. It is possible to reduce the volume of long positions within these levels, which will lead to another attempt to end the correction.
  5. Most Asian stock markets are trading in the red The volume of GDP in July-September increased by 4.9% compared with the same period last year, which was the weakest rise in a year, according to data from the State Statistical Office of the PRC. Many experts predicted a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy in the third quarter, but it turned out to be more significant than expected. The consensus forecast of experts interviewed by The Wall Street Journal envisaged an increase in China's GDP by 5.1%. The volume of industrial production in the PRC in September increased by 3.1% in annual terms after rising by 5.3% a month earlier. Analysts on average had forecast an increase of 4.5%. September growth was the weakest since July 2020. Nonetheless, retail sales in the country last month beat analysts' forecasts and increased 4.4% compared to the same month in 2020. Experts surveyed by Trading Economics, on average, expected retail sales growth to accelerate to 3.3% last month from 2.5% in August. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index by 8:30 GMT + 3 fell by 0.5%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite fell by 0.4%. Tech company values fall: Meituan declines 2.9%, Tencent Holdings Ltd. dropped 1.4%, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. fell by 1%. At the same time, oil and gas stocks traded in positive territory in Hong Kong on Monday amid the continuing rise in oil prices, CNOOC Ltd. (+1.5), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (+ 1.4%), China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (+1.3). Japanese Nikkei 225 at 8:40 GMT + 3 decreased by 0.2%. Technological Panasonic Corp. shares declined on the Japanese stock exchange. (-0.6%) and Sony Group Corp. (-1.7%), but shares of automakers Nissan Motor Co. are getting more expensive. Ltd. (+ 0.5%) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. (+ 1.6%), Toyota Motor Corp (T: 7203). (+ 2.2%). South Korean indicator Kospi dropped 0.2% by 8:45 GMT + 3. Chip manufacturers SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics are down 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively; the country's largest automakers Kia Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. grow by 0.5%. Australia's S & P / ASX 200 adds 0.3%. Mining Shares Rising: Rio Tinto Ltd. - by 2%, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. - by 1%, BHP Group Ltd. - by 0.9%.
  6. Forecast for GBP/USD on October 15, 2021 On Wednesday, the pound tried to shift the market balance towards long positions by going above the balance indicator line, but the bears made it clear that it was too early to do this. In continuing the market reaction, the price may move lower to the support of the MACD line (1.3640), after which it will continue to rise. The Marlin Oscillator is in the zone of positive values, the general trend is increasing. On the four-hour chart, the price settled above the balance line, the Marlin Oscillator is in the growth zone. The price reserve above the balance line and the signal line of the oscillator above the zero line is enough to continue a moderate correction to 1.3640. Forecast for EUR/USD on October 15, 2021 Yesterday, the euro closed the day with a symbolic growth of 1 point, the peak growth was 30 points, so yesterday can be considered corrective. US retail sales data for September are due tonight, forecast at -0.3%. In the euro area, an increase in the trade balance for August is expected from 13.4 billion euros to 15.3 billion. The euro will likely rise. The growth target is the MACD line in the 1.1668 area. On the four-hour scale, the Marlin Oscillator was discharged from the overbought zone yesterday, now it is ready to continue rising. The correction developed above the balance indicator line, which means that investors are still interested in buying.
  7. US shares mixed at close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.00% At the close in New York, the Dow Jones fell 0.00%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.30% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.73%. The leaders of growth among the components of the Dow Jones index at the end of today's trading were the shares of Salesforce.com Inc, which rose in price by 5.41 points (1.94%), to close at around 284.41. Nike Inc rose 1.92% or 2.95 points to end at 156.30. Microsoft Corporation rose 1.17% or 3.43 points to close at 296.31. The biggest losers were American Express Company, which fell 3.54% or 6.19 points to end the session at 168.72. JPMorgan Chase & Co is up 2.64% or 4.36 points to end at 161.00, while Dow Inc is down 1.44% or 0.83 points to 56. , 91. The leaders of growth among the components of the S&P 500 index at the end of today's trading were shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose in price by 3.92% to the level of 109.16, BlackRock Inc, which gained 3.78%, to close at 867.81, and also Discovery Inc Class A shares, which rose 3.74% to end at 25.50. The biggest losers were Delta Air Lines Inc, which fell 5.76% to close at 41.03. Align Technology Inc shed 4.97% to trade at 596.22. United Airlines Holdings Inc was down 3.60% to 47.88. Jasper Therapeutics Inc, which gained 105.13% to 14.790, Waitr Holdings Inc, which gained 58.45% to close at 1.2700, and Sono-Tek Corp, which were up 44.22% to end at 6.4900. The biggest losers were Regulus Therapeutics Inc, which fell 29.88% to close at 0.5326. Shares of Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp shed 29.37% to end the session at 2.910. DatChat Inc was down 26.07% to 11.10. On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (1982) exceeded the number of securities that closed in the red (1198), while the quotes of 153 shares remained practically unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange 2055 companies rose in price, 1556 declined, and 174 remained at the level of the previous close. Sono-Tek Corp rose to an all-time high, up 44.22%, at 1.9900 points, to close at 6.4900. The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures the value of S&P 500 options trading, was down 6.10% to trade at 18.64. WTI crude oil futures for November delivery fell 0.10%, or 0.08, to $ 80.56 a barrel. Futures contracts for Brent oil for December delivery fell 0.17% or 0.14 to trade at $ 83.28 a barrel. Meanwhile, on the Forex market, EUR / USD rose 0.59% to hit 1.1595, while USD / JPY fell 0.28% to hit 113.29. The US Dollar Index Futures was down 0.52% at 94.028.
  8. Forecast for EUR/USD on October 13, 2021 The euro fell as expected on Tuesday, but at the same time strengthened the technical prerequisites for an upward reversal - this is the formation of a double convergence of the price with the Marlin Oscillator and a wedge-shaped price structure, from which, according to statistics, there will be a 70% exit to the upside. Such a signal is when the price breaks through the resistance of 1.1570, from which the price turned down yesterday. The growth target is the MACD line around 1.1678. On the four-hour chart, the price is trying to break above the MACD line. The same intention - to move into the growth zone, is shown by the Marlin Oscillator. Exit of the price above 1.1570 will automatically mean that the price will exit above the balance line (red indicator), which will fulfill all the technical conditions for the euro to rise in the short term, that is, until the first specified target (1.1678).
  9. US indicators close lower On Monday, US indicators closed the trading session with a decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.72%, the S&P 500 was down 0.69% and the NASDAQ Composite dipped 0.64%. A number of factors contributed to the fall in US indicators. First, investors are concerned about rising oil prices. November WTI crude futures rose 1.5% to $80.52 a barrel and December Brent crude was up to $83.65 a barrel. Oil prices have been boosted by a worldwide gas shortage. In turn, this has benefited oil and gas companies' share prices. Another reason for traders' concern is the strong rise in inflation combined with low economic growth. Inflation is rising at a higher rate than expected due to supply problems, lack of human resources, and rapidly increasing energy costs. At the same time, the economic recovery has not been as rapid as expected. The Goldman Sachs has changed its GDP growth forecasts for the final quarter of this year due to lower consumer spending and impending cuts in government economic assistance measures. In addition, corporate reports will be released soon and may clarify how companies are coping with price increases. Indicators of expected income will show how top corporate executives assess the future growth and increase in consumer spending. Delta Air Lines, Domino's Pizza, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and JPMorgan Chase will release their reports as early as this week. Experts are optimistic because of the significant amount of savings that citizens managed to accumulate during the pandemic, as it is not known how the pandemic will unfold during the winter. Materials stocks were the best performing sector on the day, underpinned by a 3.2% jump in Freeport-McMoran Copper&Gold Inc as copper prices continued to climb. Meanwhile, JPMorgan fell 2.1% and Amazon dropped 1.3%. Visa was down 2.2% and Mastercard also fell 2.2% among the biggest drags on the S&P 500. The shares of Southwest Airlines Co. dropped 4.2% as the company canceled a third of its flights. Analysts expect a 29.6% year-on-year increase in profit for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, according to experts' forecasts. It should be noted that this indicator doubled in the second quarter.
  10. Analysis and trading recommendations for GBP/USD on October 11 GBP/USD rallied, thanks to the buy signal that coincided with the MACD line being at the oversold area. Such allowed bullish traders to take long positions, provoking a 60-pip increase in the pair. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day. It was the latest Bank of England minutes that pushed pound up, coupled with weak data on the US labor market. Today, a report on UK GDP will be published, which may push pound above local highs. But by afternoon, the market will turn calm amid a US holiday. Many markets will close by then. For long positions: Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3658 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3727 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may rise in the morning as there are no UK statistics scheduled for release today. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3607, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3658 and 1.3727. For short positions: Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3607 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. But there is little chance that the price will decline, especially since the Bank of England seems to be set on raising interest rates as soon as possible. Nevertheless, before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 1.3658, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3607 and 1.3535.
  11. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY on October 8 EUR/USD Analysis: The main pair of the European currency market has been dominated by an upward trend since March last year. The price has been adjusted downwards for the entire current year. Moreover, the wave structure looks complete. Quotes are at the lower border of a strong potential reversal zone. There are no reversal signals yet. Forecast: The general flat nature of price fluctuations is expected today. A short-term depreciation of the exchange rate is possible in the next session, no further than the support zone. By the end of the day, the probability of price growth increases. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.1600/1.1530 Support: - 1.1520/1.1490 Recommendations: The upcoming rise goes against the trend of movement, so buying the euro today may be risky. It is better to split the lot in them. It is optimal to refrain from entering the pair's market until the price pullback is completed, tracking the signals for the sale of the instrument. USD/JPY Analysis: The price on the daily TF chart of the Japanese yen has been forming a downward correction wave since March of this year. By the current day, it looks like a shifting plane. Its structure lacks the final part. The price is approaching the lower boundary of the resistance zone of the W1 scale. Forecast: On the next day, the price of the pair is expected to move with an upward vector. Settlement zones indicate the boundaries of the price corridor. By the end of the day, the probability of a change of course and the beginning of a decline increases. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 112.50/112.80 Support: - 111.60/111.30 Recommendations: Trading the Japanese yen today can be safe only within the intraday, a fractional lot. Until clear reversal signals appear in the area of the resistance zone, sales are not recommended.
  12. Analysis and trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on October 7 Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair Euro bears went over their heads yesterday and pushed EUR/USD to a new monthly low. However, the chart clearly shows that after the fall during the Asian session, the MACD line was still far from zero, so sellers did not have the opportunity to take more positions. Fortunately, buyers also could not open positions because they were unprofitable. It was the disappointing data from the Euro area that pushed the pair down yesterday. Then, in the afternoon, the price plunged deeper amid strong US statistics that supported dollar. There is a huge chance that the pair will drop lower today because the upcoming ECB minutes may not be in favor of euro. Aside from that, in the afternoon, there will be weekly data on the US labor market and report on the volume of consumer lending, although it will not have that much impact as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow. For long positions: Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1565 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1599. There is little chance that price will increase sharply today. However, there may be a small upward correction during the publication of the ECB minutes. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1548, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1565 and 1.1599. For short positions: Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1548 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.1510. Pressure is likely to continue because of the political risks in the US and sharp rise in EU inflationary pressures. Strong US statistics will also support dollar. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1595, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1548 and 1.1510. Analysis of transactions in the GBP / USD pair Wednesday's market signals were very profitable. The first one, which was to sell, coincided with the time that the MACD line was going down from zero. This allowed GBP / USD to decline by 50 pips. The signal to buy that followed provoked a 30-pip increase in the pair. Disappointing data on the UK construction sector pushed pound down yesterday. In addition, only a few were willing to buy GBP / USD at weekly highs, so there were hardly any long positions in the market. Then, strong ADP report on the US private sector employment further limited the upside potential of the pair in the afternoon. There are no important UK reports today so pound will have a chance to return to weekly highs. In the afternoon, weekly data on the US labor market will be released, as well as a report on the volume of consumer lending. Most likely, these reports will not have a serious impact on the market, as many investors anticipate the US Department of Labor report tomorrow. For long positions: Open a long position when pound reaches 1.3593 (green line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3629 (thicker green line on the chart). Price may climb up since there are no UK statistics scheduled to be released today. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.3574, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3593 and 1.3629. For short positions: Open a short position when pound reaches 1.3574 (red line on the chart) and take profit at 1.3535. Pressure will return if buyers remain inactive in the market and if the US reports strong labor market data. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. The pair could also be sold at 1.3593, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.3574 and 1.3535.
  13. GBP/USD pair is looking for a favorable buy pattern The GBP/USD pair is in the phase of forming an upward momentum unlike the EUR/USD pair. So, only a strong impulse decline at today's European session can disrupt this structure. If the quotes do not decline, then the upward movement will continue in the area of the Weekly Control Zone of 1/4 1.3561-1.3553. The upward trend is a priority. The WCZ of 1.3789-1.3755 remains the upward target. Trading based on this pattern guarantees a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. It is important to understand that there is a 30% probability to completely implement the upward movement this week, so it is necessary to be prepared to transfer purchases through the weekend. The probability of selling profitably from the current levels is below 30%, so it is better not to consider short positions. One should focus their attention on finding a pattern to buy. The probability of updating yesterday's high is 80%.
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  15. European stock indices fell on the basis of trading on Friday Investors analyzed statistics that indicate accelerating inflation and a slowdown in economic recovery from the effects of COVID-19. In addition, they are under pressure from the ongoing energy crisis in China, which could lead to even greater problems in global supply chains, especially ahead of New Years and Christmas holidays, when the demand for goods traditionally increases. In the eurozone, inflation in September accelerated to 3.4%, the highest since 2008, up from 3% a month earlier, preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the European Union show. Experts on average expected an acceleration in the growth rate of consumer prices in September to 3.3%. The growth rate of retail sales in Germany in August fell short of analysts' expectations. The indicator increased by 1.1% from the previous month, according to data from the country's Federal Statistical Agency (Destatis). The economist had on average expected growth of 1.5%. The September purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the eurozone fell to its lowest level since February at 58.6, final data from IHS Markit showed. In the month before last, the indicator was at the level of 61.4 points. In Germany, the industrial PMI was revised to 58.4 points from 58.5 points previously announced by IHS Markit. In August, the indicator was 62.6 points. In the UK, the indicator fell to 57.1 points from 60.3 in August. However, IHS experts previously estimated the country's September PMI at 56.3 points. The French manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 55 points last month from 57.5 points, the Italian index fell to 59.7 from 60.9 points. The Spanish PMI fell to 58.1 points from 59.5 in August. In general, the decline in manufacturing activity in European countries was caused by problems in global supply chains and, as a result, an increase in purchase prices, according to the HIS report. The composite index of the largest enterprises in the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 0.42% and amounted to 452.9 points. The British FTSE 100 dropped 0.8%, the French CAC 40 fell 0.04%, and the Italian FTSE MIB dropped 0.3%. The German DAX has decreased by 0.7%, since the beginning of the week the indicator has lost more than 3%, that is, the maximum since January 25. At the same time, the Spanish IBEX 35 index grew by 0.04%. UK sporting goods retailer JD Sports slumped 1.3% after it was reported that the UK regulator had begun investigating possible antitrust violations in the country as part of its partnership with Leicester City F.C. football club. The market capitalization of the British beverage maker Diageo PLC declined 2%. The company will provide $ 500 million to boost production of tequila in Mexico. The value of Deutsche Post AG fell by almost 5%. DHL Express's logistics division plans to increase shipping rates for US customers by an average of 5.9% starting January 1. Oil and gas BP PLC fell 0.7%. The company announced a day earlier that, as part of the investment round, it will allocate $ 13 million to the ****** startup-developer of the service for electric car rental and charging stations BluSmart. Growth leaders in the Stoxx 600 include French electricity and gas supplier Electricite de France S.A., which gained almost 6% after French Prime Minister Jean Castex said potential electricity price increases in February would be capped at 4%. German automaker Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) AG gained 1.3%. The company has improved its forecast for a number of financial indicators for 2021, citing the fact that the rise in car prices will offset the negative impact of the global chip shortage. Daimler AG's value increased by 0.9%. The shareholders of the German automotive concern have approved the spin-off of the Daimler Truck division into an independent company with a separate listing. The remainder of Daimler AG, which will exclusively produce luxury and premium passenger cars and minivans, will be renamed Mercedes-Benz Group AG from February 2022.

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