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KostiaForexMart

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  1. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 16, 2019 A bullish morning star pattern was seen after the surge of the EUR/USD pair last week. Yet, the significant support level of 1.1118 is not yet established, which means that the bears can be in control of the movement. This area is important as this held various declines for this aside from a short drop below in latter days of July. On Thursday, US economic data was released that shows better than forecast that supports the US dollar. Retail sales grew by 0.7% in July, more than the 0.3% forecast of an increase. This excludes the automobile and gas, which then prompted the data to increase by 1.0%. Trade balance from Eurostat is also to be released soon. Also, there is the consumer sentiment and building permits from the United States. Although, there are not likely to keep the impact on the exchange rate. The significant level of EUR/USD pair was broken and there will also be not many purchases. Moreover, the pair begins to enter the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart. The support level is around the area of 1.1075, which makes the lowest close on a daily basis for the year. Moving forward, the next probable target is around 1.1027, which was the August low. It is not likely for the pair to break again for another fresh yearly low today, considering few expected fundamental events on the economic calendar. Closing of the pair today is relevant. If the pair manages to keep the current levels, there will be a reverse bullish trend of last week’s reversal pattern. More importantly, this will confirm the resumption of the EUR/USD downtrend. The overall momentum of the EUR/USD pair is downward, although the pair begins to oversell on the 4-hour chart. In comparison to a basket of major currency pairs, the common currency is likely to have its biggest loss. Yet, even if there is a light economic schedule, the news may induce some volatility in the pair.
  2. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 15, 2019 Fed member Bullard’s view of reducing interest rates once again this year remains despite the volatility this week. Investors’ concern rises as the yield curve shows inversion and pressure continues in the equity markets. The markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to take action and ease rates as the inversion outcome hints a possible recession. Yet, Bullard remains firm, shrugging off the market demand. This shows that the Fed would not react in every news about the US-Sino trade war. Although volatility has been apparent in various assets, the euro major pair isn’t exactly one of them as it continues to fluctuate on its average range. Yesterday’s range kept a bearish tone but the expected data to come out more than the technical aspect that pushes the pair. The US retail sales, as well as Philly Fed manufacturing index and unemployment claims, will be released today. The EUR/USD pair moved lower because of a strong dollar and broke the confluence of support. The indicator limits the downward range of the pair that has been going on since early last week and now it is broken. This looks like an obstacle on the upside. At the same time, a horizontal level was seen close to the moving average of 1.1155 that prompted a confluence at the resistance. Below, the major support level is at 1.1118, which keeps the pair higher than April and May. Moreover, this keeps the pair higher in latter July on the 4-hour chart. The pair seems to be testing the lower limit of the descending trend channel, although it may be too early to decide whether it will sustain the downward trend.
  3. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 14, 2019 Given the volatility in the markets, the decline of the common currency markets is nothing compared to the volatility across the markets. Risky assets rose after Trump announced postponing the imposition of 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Nonetheless, the euro major pair keeps in range over a week. The GDP growth dropped by 0.1% in the second quarter, meeting analysts’ expectations. However, this does affect much the rate. Data from Europe came out softer than anticipated, which resulted in the EUR/USD pair to ease lower. It seems that the short-term trading of the EUR/USD pair is headed downward after several attempts on the resistance above. Meanwhile, let us take into consideration a reversal candlestick on the weekly chart after a rally last week. This trend keeps purchases on a decline. The pair is trading between the 100- and 200-MA on the 4-hour chart. Yet, the range remains strong even if it slightly weakened. A horizontal level is found close to the 100-MA at 1.1155. The horizontal level acted as a resistance before and a slight confluence was formed. There is still a strong level around 1.1118, which was tested several times this year. If the pair is able to move lower, this level plays strongly for a decline. Yet, even if there are fundamental news that affects the market, the euro major pair manages to remain in range. Meanwhile, dips can still be bought considering the reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
  4. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 9, 2019 A tweet of US President Trump has once again spiked volatility but trading of EUR/USD pair still remains in the range. He remarked his disappointment in the strength of the dollar due to higher rates than other nations. Looking at the news, three central banks in India, New Zealand and Thailand had reduced their interest rates with 35, 50 and 25 basis points, respectively. German trade balance and French industrial production data came out less than expected at the earlier part of the day, although this did not really have an impact on the trading. Another report on the producer price index will be released at the US session. Although, it doesn’t usually bring volatility. Yesterday the euro major pair remains strong as it did not go down with just right significant resistance confluence. The support level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from moving higher so far. Closing above this level today could lead to a reversal morning star candlestick on the weekly chart. Hence, the bidding of the pair will likely continue until next week. Moreover, it is logical for the pair to continue range-bound trading given the quiet economic calendar. As we noted earlier, the resistance is important while the 200-MA moves in a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. But at the same time, the 50- and 100-MA are also considered important. Overall, the euro major pair will persist to trade within the range and probably attempt to hold the pair prior to the upcoming trading session. The pair is likely to have a reversal pattern on the weekly chart.
  5. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 7, 2019 Recently, the news concerning the trade war between the US and China urged traders to act relative to the Chinese exchange rate. Some resistance establishes from 200-MA on the 4-hour daily chart and a strong confluence of 50- and 100-MA to 1.1230. A push higher than the resistance level took place on the intraday and closed below it. A Doji candle indicates exhaustion and builds a pullback. A bearish engulfing candle was seen just after the European open. It seems that the pair is descending. A strong bullish tone pushes the rally of the pair at the beginning of the week. This also opens a chance for a reversal in the short-term. The pair returned to the 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. This can give a sign when the pair reaches the top price for the week. In general, volatility can spark concerning the trade war. Also, there is not much going on in the economic calendar, except for the speech from Fed member Evans which remains the focus in the trading session ahead.
  6. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 5, 2019 Last week, the headlines on US president Trump publicized the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods has had a big impact on the US dollar rate. Alongside with it, this occurred simultaneously with the markets placing bets on another rate cut in September given the dovish decision of the Fed. Considering the CME Fed watch tool, a rate cute is probable in September by about 50 basis points in a quarter percentage chance. This is not surprising but trade tariffs add could adjust the sentiment at the next Fed meeting. EUR/USD trend changes swiftly and whose central bank, the ECB or the Fed, will ease their policies becomes uncertain already even daily. On a positive note, it seems like the technical analysis becomes more stable even if the fundamental outlook looks hazy. The recent gains of euro major pair were primarily due to the weakened dollar and commodity instruments are in red in this month. The level of 1.1118 plays a significant role in the trend. An upward rally countered the earlier breakdown. Hence, it is likely for the pair to drop at the beginning of the week to be sustained in this area. The area of 1.1118 was considered to be either resistance and support. This level limits short-term gains. If we can sustain the rally tomorrow or the day after, the next probable target is around 1.1230 given the convergence of the 50- and 100MA.
  7. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: August 2, 2019 On Wednesday, the markets were signaled by the Fed that they do not intend to begin a reduction cycle. For now, they will analyze the risks of the situation and then, they will adjust the policy if needed. In effect, this put the market to set back as they positioned on the expectation of a start of the easing cycle. However, this returned not long after for rate cut in the short-term. The recent statement of US President Donald Trump to add a tariff on Chinese imports, signifying that trade war talks are not yet settled. In turn, this induces an aversion to risks on metals while gains are reversed on equities. A chance for a rate cute grew in September and the money markets are almost ready to get ready for the reduction. Moreover, the pair also showed a reversal candlestick on the daily chart. Yesterday, the bullish trend indicates a strong buying kept the pair to bid on a decline. Despite the release of the jobs report, the market sentiment is not likely to have a big change as they are getting ready for the rate cut. The significant resistance level is at 1.1118, which kept the pair rising higher in April-May prior to Fed decision on Wednesday. A breakout would be important and could induce a trend reversal. Nonetheless, the US employment data will bring volatility today.
  8. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 30, 2019 The economic data will not do much to induce volatility to the EUR/USD pair prior to the release of Fed meeting. The currency pair keeps the trades close to the support at 1.12100 after a loss of 2% for the week. Meanwhile, the pair is less likely to reach below the support, prior to tomorrow’s Fed meeting. In today’s North American session, the US inflation data will be released. Even though the release of the PCE price index will have a minor impact on the market and barely drives it to move. Hence, it is worth observing the pair. Subdued inflation is the primary reason that drove the Fed to ease its policy. At the same time, the PCE index will reflect it if this is the case. Bids are seen in the early trading of the euro major pair at the European session and attempt to break higher. If the currency moves higher than 1.1150, a break is highly likely in the early trading range and induce a bigger recovery. A horizontal level of 1.1188 keeps the pair from falling down after the ECB meeting last week. It seems that level remains to be a significant level with further resistance around 1.1200 handle. Bigger resistance is at bay around the area of 1.1240 with the convergence to the level of 50- and 100-MA. Yet, it seems that the pair will not get too far on the daily trend prior to the Fed meeting. The level below 1.1118 seems to be important as initial resistance and the major support around 1.1100 handle. This support level has kept the pair lower and it is presumed to decline in the Wednesday Fed meeting.
  9. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 29, 2019 The dollar rallies prior to the Fed meeting, which puts the dollar bears in a difficult situation to keep their stance this week. Meanwhile, the dollar is about to reach the yearly high with inversely correlated to the euro major pair that will closely breakthrough the two-year low. The price holds higher than the level of 1.1118 on the daily chart, although the ups are short. Volatility is expected to be present with the scheduled meeting of central banks this week. In the previous week, the pair declined after the ECB meeting but only occurred to have a higher reversal. The resistance at 1.1188 is where sellers joined the trading. However, looking that the pair returned back to the support level, which could mean that there is not enough momentum for buying. Also, major currencies are met with important support against the dollar at the beginning of the week. However, there is no strong technical movement for a turn here. Yet, it may not be wise for tailgating for a breakthrough. If the price breaks lower than the horizontal level of 1.1118, it could possibly attempt to test again the lower limit of the trend channel which was previously kept higher. This kept the price movement on the 4-hour chart. On the other hand, if the price rises higher than 1.1135, this would open the chance to go higher with the resistance level remains at 1.1188 as an after-effect of ECB decision. In the meantime, the volatility is likely to increase this week with various risks to move the markets. Yet, the mentioned resistance of 1.1188 remains to be a key resistance that traders have to face after ECB last week.
  10. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 25, 2019 Markets are hoping for a dovish sentiment from the ECB since other central banks have made their decisions. Although, this if not far from the June ECB meeting but not as dovish than expected. This resulted in an increase and then Draghi expressed their sentiments on considering the risks. Now, the markets are considering easing from the ECB even today’s meeting. Although, some analysts have different opinions in mind as they are expecting it in September instead. Overall, volatility will highly depend on the decision, either become dovish or hawkish than anticipated by the markets. Thus, we can expect a reaction given the markets’ statement of a probable rate cut. This time is different from the previous meetings since it is not about the press conference. If the price further declines, it is not far from stops induced below 2019 low, which can minimize volatility. Thus, I would aim for the level of 1.14027. If we push lower from here, I think it is inevitable that stops will get triggered below the 2019 low. This can trigger a volatile downside move. In such a scenario, I would be looking for a move to 1.1027. However, if the price turns out bullish, there can be few levels to be considered important. Initially, it will be around 1.1184, which was the previous high in March and April. At the same time, this caused a reversal in the middle of June. If the markets can reach as high as 1.1265 on an intraday basis, this would favor trade scalpers. This rate offers resistance beyond the usual range for ECB. Support was held higher for the year at 1.1118 and a surge in volatility can take place in case it goes lower, which is likely to be the limit with today’s ECB meeting. It can stop from here if the ECB becomes dovish than anticipated. Yet, if the rate doesn’t decline, then we can see the pair to rise to 1.1184.
  11. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 23, 2019 The euro currency keeps on declining as traders look for chances of sell stops on Tuesday with the anticipation of the ECB chief Draghi, to reduce rates in September to be discussed on ECB policy meeting on the 25th of the month. Earlier, the trend declined when the sellers were able to work out the 1.1200 with the main trend is now in a downward direction. Afterwhich, the price pushed to the main level below at 1.1193 and 1.1181. Sellers were also able to break through the long-term Fibo level of 1.1185 with the resistance level from 1.1278 to 1.1318. As a result, the euro major pair has a bearish trend. At the moment, the price is found at 1.1178 and the future movement of the pair will highly depend on traders' reaction to the Fibo level of 1.1185. If the price stays below 1.1185, this would mean the dominance of sellers and further movement to 1.1181 would mean a stronger presence of sellers. This could result in a break to 1.1161, which was previous support prior to the main bottoms at 1.1116 (May 30) and 1.1107 (May 23). On the other hand, returning to the level of 1.1185 would mean the presence of buyers. In turn, this could lead to resistance levels of 1.12143/15. However, we should look for sellers and break to 1.1215 could mean faster acceleration to the upper level.
  12. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 18, 2019 A weakened dollar influenced a recovery rally from the euro major pair. With the market expected to have an aggressive easing, it seems that the push is not likely to reach a higher break. Moreover, we have to keep in mind the bullish engulfing candle in DXY following optimistic retail sales on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US dollar index declines for the second successive trading hours after the sharp increase of retail sales. The EUR/USD pair tests the horizontal level of 1.1237. So far, the trend moves with an upward direction for the week so far. An important confluence on the resistance should also be noted. At the same time, a confluence to 1.1245 with the 50- and 100-MA, which was the peak for the day so far. Below, the 1.1200 handle keeps the pair higher and remains major support in the short-term. For the week, there is no market data anticipated for the week, unless a headline comes out to influence the market. Hence, a drop in volatility is likely. Overall, even if the greenback weakens today, the euro major pair may have less trading. At the beginning of the day, the common currency is in a flat state. Meanwhile, the Sterling pound has been the strongest contender as the UK sales on retail push the pair higher.
  13. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 17, 2019 Markets are still not sure on how the Fed will be on the next meeting scheduled at the end of the month. Rhetorics from Fed member, Evans has triggered a deep decline last week by half a percent at the end of the year. Investors are following the data releases closely, concerned by the possibility of the ECB to follow the Fed in monetary easing. Yesterday, the euro major pair dropped below the support of 1.1237. Consequently, the pair broke to the range which was sustained for almost a week. The fall of the trend opened the path to the psychological handle of 1.1200 and further below seems attractive. The support of 1.1188 remained higher in the middle of June, which then resulted to a rally above 1.1400. In turn, this will be the border limit for the EUR/USD bulls. In the short-term, traders will likely to meet resistance to the level of 1.1237, which was the lower border in the previous range. It may push the pair above 1.1265 to make it attractive for bulls. After a break in the range, bears have taken over for short-period of time. After the inflation headline, the euro major pair rose slightly from support with an upward resistance met at 1.1237 as mentioned earlier. The next downward level will probably 1.1188 to be significant.
  14. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 16, 2019 Looking back at what happened last week, the dollar had gone weaker after Fed chair became more dovish than anticipated. However, with the presence of resistance on the upside and range support, the EUR/USD pair could stay range-bound. Nonetheless, the market will monitor the upcoming data to assess the probability of Fed easing at the end of the month. The highest impact will probably be the initial release of the second quarter of GDP. Hence, the momentum in the euro and other currency pairs paired with greenback will probably slow down. As we can see, the impact of Powell rhetorics will probably lessen this week, considering that the future markets will prepare to set the price after aggressive easing at the end of the month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of rate cut by 50 basis points grew to 3 from 1. The euro major pair was previously seen testing the confluence of support at 1.1237 and the 50-MA. It seems that there is a lot of trading at the start of this week. However, it less likely to break lower and at the same time, thinking that the top resistance is opposing the dollar index. Overall, volatility may be a bit slow prior to the release of data, which will have a say to the chances of a rate cut. In the short-term, a rally is probable at 1.1265 with the presence of sellers.
  15. KostiaForexMart

    EUR/USD Daily Analysis: July 12, 2019 Forecast for consumer prices shows a higher increase in June. The most recent report showed a growth of 0.1 for the month CPI and 0.3% for the Core CPI. Overall, the figures have exceeded expectations. Rising inflation may affect the rally of the euro major pair given that the weaker dollar was driven this week by expectations on monetary policy easing. The dollar index (DXY) dropped more than half of the percent from the most recent high amid the rhetorics of Powell. On yesterday’s CPI data, the index rose and was able to close unchanged. A Doji pattern was also seen on the euro major pair, which shows some exhaustion. This follows the possibility that the CPI data may hinder the upward movement of the pair, at least for short-term. Along with the Doji pattern, the pair closed below the 100-MA and was unsuccessful to break higher than the indicator, which will not be favorable for the bulls. As of the moment, the price is trading beyond it. The upward movement seems to be limited by the resistance of 1.1265 so far. The pair has to maintain a breakthrough above 1.1280 in order to confirm the ascending movement here. This will negatively affect yesterday’s exhaustion candle. On the other end, if the pair closes once again below the 100-MA, traders can expect for the weakened state at the beginning of next week. It may not be easy to continue the recovery of the pair but as stated, there is some strong resistance at 1.1305on the 4-hour chart and be limited around 1.1265. There is also a chance for the pair to retreat to the horizontal level of 1.1237 below. There is a minimal chance for the euro major pair to recover in the background of a few fundamental news and technical limitations to limit the pair's move to go higher. The pair is also likely to close in relation to the 100-MA, which would have a big impact on next week’s trading.
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