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GersonH

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About GersonH

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  1. As digital currencies—including bitcoin price, Ethereum and XRP—gain legitimacy as investable assets, the number of exchanges that trade in cryptocurrency has also grown. As crypto adoption continues to increase, one prominent trend we're seeing is the proliferation of crypto-friendly exchanges based in East Asia. One of the key reasons for this, says Joshua Greenwald, CEO at LXDX, a cryptocurrency trading platform aimed at institutional investors, is the greater diversity of fiat currency in the region. “In Europe or US, you're generally dealing with a mono-currency regime. The greater FX diversity in the region heightens both familiarity and demand. Users, institutional and retail, are used to FX markets and FX trading; the additional utility provided through common digital assets is particularly attractive when the alternative is expensive transaction and conversion fees.” What's behind the surge in crypto exchange launches in East Asia? Tony Gu, founding partner at NEO Global Capital says: “In recent years, Asia has been a central hub for innovation in various TMT sectors. Crypto exchanges are just one aspect of this. I believe there are a few driving factors for this upturn, one being a large, young population, the fast-changing economic landscape, rapidly growing technology development, an ever-growing social tension, and a less mature regulatory system.” Uneven regulation likely also has something to do with this phenomenon Gu adds: "If we compare the regulatory stance in Asia with Western countries, there are a few important differences. Regulation in Asia is more fragmented - culturally and politically, it is less developed in terms of the capital market, and there is a less experienced investor base. These factors make it possible to arbitrage among regions and quickly establish a functioning business but that may be in a grey area - not fully regulated but also not illegal.” There's a huge appetite for crypto in East Asia. Tal Elyashiv, managing partner at SPiCE VC agrees with Gu, the location provides a beneficial combination of key markets in terms of investors and volume and a fluid state of regulatory guidance. A number of relatively new exchanges have gained traction with investors, below we list five. Note: The information provided below is for research purposes only. It should not be taken as a recommendation or endorsement. Do your own due diligence before investing in any financial asset or instrument. Conrail, a South Korea-based exchange was hacked in July, losing 30 percent of its digital currency inventory in the process—including NPXS, DENT and Trontokens—for a total loss of approximately $40 million. In June, Bithumb, another South Korean exchange was also hacked, losing around $31 million in the process; stolen cryptocurrencies included Bitcoin, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. Of course, there are ways to vet an exchange in order to minimize risk, but the threat of hacking still hasn't completely disappeared. Nonetheless,crypto specialists note that security efforts are improving. NEO Global Capital's Gu points to a few key areas where improvements have occurred including smart contract security audits from services providers such as Certik, hot/cold wallet storage, internal risk control such as private key management processes and contingency funds.
  2. By Kathy Lien. Investors sent EUR/USD to its highest level this month on the back of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement. Considering that euro was trading strongly ahead of the rate decision, it didn’t take much for the currency pair to hit 1.17 and now that it has, many traders are wondering if they should fade or follow the move. To answer this question, we need to dissect Super Mario’s latest outlook – judging from his comments, we know he’s worried about growth (hence the lowered GDP forecasts for 2018 and 2019), protectionism, emerging-market turmoil and external demand. Yet EUR/USD rallied because low inflation has become less of a concern. According to Mario Draghi, domestic cost pressures are strengthening and inflation should pick up toward the end of the year and rise gradually in the medium term. The central-bank Governor’s concerns about trade tensions are also tempered by his view that global demand is strong. Despite the GDP downgrades, a healthy labor market keeps their economic outlook broadly balanced. Market sentiment and positioning is very important when it comes to trading major event risks. Had the euro been hovering near this month’s low ahead of the rate decision, traders would have latched on to the central bank’s lower economic projections. However, the possibility of a GDP downgrade was leaked on Wednesday, giving investors the opportunity to discount the central bank’s move. The recent decline in Italian bond yields also helped euro stabilize this week. So when the softer US consumer price Index was released, EUR/USD popped higher and extended its gains to 1.1700. Traders, who were looking for a reason to cover their shorts, focused on the positive elements of Draghi’s comments. They were happy that he had anything positive to say at all and relieved there was no mention of the data disappointments in Germany and Italy. EUR/USD: A Buy Or Sell? On a technical basis, the pair broke out of an 8-day long consolidation but Thursday’s rally stopped right at the 100-day and 20-week SMAs, which are natural areas of resistance. Shorter-term charts show the possibility of continued gains but that’s predicated on Friday’s U.S. retail sales report. Producer and consumer prices surprised to the downside this week with year-over-year US CPI growth slowing to its weakest pace in 4 months. While neither one of these reports will stop the Federal Reserve from tightening this month, they increase the chance that it’ll be the last hike of the year. If retail sales also surprises to the downside like economists anticipate, it would reinforce the EUR/USD’s positive bias and take the pair to 1.18, use profit calculator. However if consumer spending improves – and we think it could given the acceleration in wage growth – the record-breaking moves in U.S. stocks and stronger spending reported by Johnson Redbook, EUR/USD could sink back down to support near 1.1610. Sterling also traded higher on Thursday but not as a result of the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. GBP/USD actually weakened slightly after the central bank voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged. Its decision wasn’t a surprise considering that BoE just raised interest rates in August. The central bank expects inflation to ease next year due to an energy price cap but pay could be stronger due to a healthy labor market. Ongoing tightening will be needed according to the central bank but future rate hikes will be limited and gradual. It wasn’t until the release of U.S. CPI that GBP/USD started to strengthen. The pair eventually broke above 1.31 on the back of the ECB’s optimism and general USD weakness. Looking ahead, Brexit negotiations continue to go well and we think that they will carry GBP/USD to 1.32. The Australian and New Zealand dollars stretched higher while the Canadian dollar held back. AUD and NZD benefitted from the general improvement in risk appetite and Wednesday night’s stronger-than-expected labor-market report. A total of 44K jobs were created in August, the majority of which were full time. The Australian economy has held up remarkably well despite slower Chinese growth and China’s troubles with the U.S. but eventually the challenges faced by Australia’s largest trading partner could come back to haunt the currency. The Canadian dollar failed to participate in Thursday’s rally because there haven’t been any breakthroughs in trade talks between the U.S. and Canada. Apparently there were reports on Thursday that Trump told donors he would drop Canada from the U.S.-Mexico-Canada pact if they don’t agree to his terms. The talks haven’t broken down completely but Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland was the first to admit that plenty of work still needs to be done.
  3. On Wednesday the 12th of September, trading on the euro closed up. The dollar was under pressure amid the strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Market participants reacted to officials' sentiment regarding the imminent conclusion of a new trilateral NAFTA free trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico. In addition, US President Donald Trump said in the evening that negotiations with Canada were going well, and that Canada wants to conclude a new agreement. The euro recovered to 1.1650, after which the pair moved to the consolidation phase. Day's news (GMT+3): 9:00 Germany: CPI (Aug). 9:45 France: CPI (Aug). 10:15 Switzerland: producer and import prices (Aug). 14:00 UK: BoE asset purchase facility, BoE interest rate decision, BoE minutes. 14:45 Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision. 15:30 Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement and press conference. 15:30 Canada: new housing price index (YoY). 15:30 US: initial jobless claims (Sep 7), CPI (Aug). 21:00 US: monthly budget statement (Aug). Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Current situation: The lateral trend from 1.1650 has been underway for 14 hours. At the time of writing, the euro is at 1.1624 (1.1635 on the chart). Market participants have their attention focused on the ECB and BoE meetings, as well as Draghi's press conference. The ECB is not expected to raise rates. Draghi said that rates will remain low for a long time. All eyes and ears will be on Draghi's announcement. The euro may fall under pressure after the BoE's decision to keep interest rates at the same level. At this time, we should monitor the breakdown of votes on the decision. Any changes will cause sharp price fluctuations on GBP pairs, and will affect the euro/dollar via the euro/pound pair. I forecast a drop this week to 1.1576, and on Friday to 1.1530. The forecast does not take into account the fundamental data, therefore deviations are possible. The support is at the 45th degree - 1.1596, resistance - 1.1666. what does pips mean in forex trading in this forescast
  4. Current situation: In order for this week’s trading to close at my projected level around 1.1580, the bears need to go on the attack today. For the time being, they’re holding off ahead of today’s NFP report in the US, which comes out at 15:30 (GMT+3). If the NFP report disappoints market participants today, there’s a risk of returning to 1.1720 over the following 3 hours. I don’t make market predictions on payrolls day. If the actual figures significantly diverge from projections, we can expect volatility within a 100 – 150 pip range. There aren’t any important news releases from Europe expected. The market often consolidates within a narrow range ahead of the NFP report. Don’t be surprised if the pair continues to trade at around 1.1635 up until 15:30 (GMT+3). Markets are jittery over the possibility of even more tariffs being imposed on Chinese imports to the US, so pressure on the euro will remain even if it moves upwards at 15:30. See more forex lessons technical analysis here!
  5. The trade war is back and investors don’t like it. The U.S. dollar traded higher against all of the major currencies Friday on the back of a stronger jobs report and President Trump’s threat of fresh tariffs on China and Japan. Stocks extended their slide and unless the president retracts his threats, further losses are likely, which means more risk aversion and losses for the major currencies. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report guarantees a Fed hike on September 26. Not only were there more than 200K jobs created in August but, wages are growing! Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% last month, the strongest pace of growth in nearly a year. Between the record highs in U.S. stocks last month and the pickup in earnings, next week’s retail sales could surprise to the upside as well. Comments from U.S. policymakers have also been hawkish with Fed Presidents Mester, Rosengren and Kaplan looking for the policy rate to move toward neutral. The greenback should extend its gains versus Eur, Aud and other major currencies, but the outlook for USD/JPY is tricky. USD/JPY dropped as safe haven carry flows returned home after President Trump hinted that Japan could be the target for their next trade fight. He’s focused on reducing deficits and in a phone interview with the Wall Street Journal he said they may not be happy “as soon as I tell them how much they have to pay.” Late Friday, he also tightened the noose on China by threatening to impose another $267B in tariffs. These threats make it very difficult for stocks and USD/JPY to rise. Although the yen crosses could be hit the hardest, if Trump throws out more threats next week or China/Japan return with hard words of their own, USD/JPY will fall. At the beginning of the month we talked about how September is historically a weak month for stocks and President Trump’s trade war could make things even worse. The Australian and New Zealand dollars hit a 2-year low and further losses are likely. AUD/USD was hit the hardest by President Trump’s threat of new tariffs on China. Between the mortgage rate hikes, global trade tensions and yuan weakness, the outlook for Australia is grim and therefore AUD/USD could extend its slide below 70 cents. The New Zealand dollar also tumbled – there’s been an irrefutable downtrend in New Zealand data and the deterioration should be evident in next week’s manufacturing PMI report. We believe there could be another 2% to 3% drop in NZD/USD before the pair finds a bottom. On Friday we learned that Canada lost 51K jobs last month with the nation’s largest province, Ontario, seeing part-time work decline by the biggest amount in close to a decade. The increase in full-time work is encouraging but with such a significant pullback, the economy is not at risk of overheating. However the market is looking for a rate hike from the Bank of Canada this year and according to Deputy Governor Wilkins, the central bank debated dropping the line “gradual approach” to rate hikes from their policy statement, adding that normally there would be a rise at this point to preempt inflation. This tells us that the central bank is clearly hawkish and open to the idea of raising interest rate before the end of the year. Yet they also don’t want to pre-commit without seeing how the trade talks progress. If a deal with the U.S. is reached before the October meeting, there’s nothing standing in the way of a hike. Not only would we see USD/CAD fall aggressively when the headline hits, but it will be the start of a new downtrend that could take the pair down to 1.29. If there’s no deal, USD/CAD could hold strong into the rate decision. Pay atention about forex economics fundamentals here!
  6. Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions: Large cryptocurrency speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 4th. This was a weekly boost of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,472 net contracts. Speculative bearish bets dipped this week and have trended lower for three out of the past four weeks. The small trader position, meanwhile, slightly cut back on their existing bullish positions this week by an equally offsetting -104 contracts to a current bullish level of 1,368 net contracts. Bitcoin Futures COT Data: Speculators vs Small Traders The Bitcoin futures data is in its thirty-eighth week since the beginning of the cryptocurrency futures data releases on December 19th 2017. The data includes trader classifications of only speculators and small traders and without commercial traders (typically business hedgers or producers of a commodity). Speculators continue to be on the bearish side of this market while the small traders have remained on the bullish side since the beginning of the bitcoin data releases. Bitcoin Futures: Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $7350 which was a gain of $260 from the previous close of $7090, according to unofficial market data. See more trading beginners guide here!
  7. For me, the best is metatrader 5 trading platform, where I can use all my economic indicators. MT4 is very good. But in my point of view it gives me better MT5 results.
  8. I agree with that it is not an easy deal at all. To understand this complicated business trader you need to understand the market very well. We must understand forex market calendar, technical analysis among other indicators and stratigraphies. It is not easy to be consistent in profits
  9. On Wednesday the 5th of September, trading on the euro closed up. Market volatility was high during both the European and US sessions. At the beginning of the European session, the single currency live currency rates dropped against the dollar from 1.1608 to 1.1543. In the US session, the euro bulls pushed the session high up from 1.1608 to 1.1640. The greenback came under pressure from a rising pound, which occurred on the back of a Bloomberg report that the UK and Germany have decided to give up certain demands, which should make it easier for the sides to reach a deal. This unexpected piece of news fits in with my market expectations, although I haven’t accounted for volatility. Day’s news (GMT+3): 09:00 Germany: factory orders (Jul). 15:15 US: ADP employment change (Aug). 15:30 Canada: building permits (Jul). 15:30 US: nonfarm productivity (Q2), unit labour costs (Q2), initial jobless claims (31 Aug). 15:45 Eurozone: ECB's Lautenschläger Speech. 16:45 US: Markit services PMI (Aug). 17:00 US: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Aug), factory orders (Jul). 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (31 Aug), FOMC member Williams speech. Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Current situation: Now let’s look at the hourly chart. While the pair has deviated from my weekly projection, I haven’t removed it from the chart because the rate has now returned to its projected level on the hourly cycles. I’ve double-checked the cycles and nothing has changed. The pair just strayed from the weekly projection for a bit. Given yesterday’s pricing model, I’m prepared to entertain the possibility of a double top formation, although the general technical picture suggests a jump to the 67th degree. 1.1605 will act as a support today. The market has been swinging for the last few days, so don’t expect volatility to subside and be ready to see some full retracements of previous movements. I don’t really have any trading ideas to apply to my forecast. I think that today, everyone will be preparing for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report.
  10. Intesting Analysis. Thanks for share
  11. Hello I am Gerson, nice to mee you, Your Welcome this forum
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