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About Armis

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  1. @BillyR missed your reply somehow. Any way, for sure it can be programmed as an EA, and most probably has been done by someone. The problem is, once it becomes a mechanical system most likely it won't produce a good result. You can't give static rules to a dynamic market. And this is the main reason why none of these EAs work in a long run. ATR is just a usefull tool to have in your toolbox, but the main driver in the seat has to be you.
  2. Armis

    As January is nearing it's end, the time has come for another update. I have to say time really flies. It has been nearly 4 months since my first post and it only feels like few weeks ago. Performance for January: FX: +61.23% That's a new record and way beyond my expectations. Most of it is off the back of severe dollar weakness. Best trades: AUDUSD 300pips GBPJPY 280pips EURJPY 240pips Crypto: +42.06% This might look good , but it actually isn't. I have been holding some XRP since end of December 2017. At one point (before market sell off) it was +300%. I have changed my views on this coin and liquidated it, and probably won't be buying it in the future, unless it drops to ridiculously cheap levels. I'd like to see a deeper pullback in the crypto market (who knows?) before adding more coins to my portfolio. I have joined few ICO's meanwhile. And the portfolio is as follows: Also check out most recent crypto coin ratings from Weiss if you haven't done so yet. And If you are in to trading check out this article I have posted earlier, on how you can incorporate ATR in to your trading for better results. It has served me really well this month on trading with trend post pullback. That's it for now ;)
  3. Armis

    From my point of view I can say that these bonuses are actually a waste of time and do you no real good. It's a sales pitch to lure a young retail trader in to a cycle, that he most likely won't be able to get out of. And it doesn't end well. The problem is with most brokers, that you can't get any money (including your own funds/profits) out until you reach a ridiculous turnover in lots in a stupid amount of time. Also, as it's most likely that this trader will be taking bad positions on super high leverage, will loose his own money first (surely there's this clause in terms and conditions). So after this happens idea about any withdrawals fades, because then you loose the bonus on top of the loses that you've already made. "Better make it back, while the bonus is there." Aaaaand boom goes the account. Broker 1 : Trader 0 There's no such thing as free money. Do yourself a favor and trade with what you have. It's less stressful too, you not gonna have this: "oh I need to trade that much, in this amount of time, cause if not, then...". I think maintaining a balanced mind is much more important, cause your results depend on it. As for demo accounts, they are absolutely crucial to a beginner. But nowadays you can get one at every corner. I can say for a fact that prolonged paper trading is not really beneficial, so once you think you're ready, you should do a live demo (funded with a very small amount). You will notice quickly how much of a difference it is compared to virtual. @Nadilapars what are you on about mate? Every single well established broker has an app (sometimes several) for their platform.
  4. Here's a screenshot below of my AUD/JPY short that I'm currently in. I did short it at 89.00 as soon as market opened this week. I did read an article about BOJ (Bank of Japan) slowly downsizing their bond-purchase program, but my main reasoning for the trade was technical. As my trade was unfolding and more news hit the wires, I've realized this could run for a bit, so adding to the trade started to sound like a good idea and ATR helped me to do it in a sensible way. I like to have a decent pullback in a trend before entering/adding and in this situation AUD Retail sales data provided just that. Surely as you've read above ATR values are not set in stone and can go beyond. If not today, then tomorrow, as anything can happen in the fickle world of forex. But combined with other technicals I think it's a great tool to define and limit your risks.
  5. Hi guys, Been going through my old notes and found this amazing article, I'm sure it will come handy to some (especially if you're a day trader). So often, a good trading plan is ruined by sub-optimal execution. Sometimes we can identify great trends with strong underlying fundamentals, only to join the trend when it's about to end. Other times, we try to pick the best possible spot for an entry, and price carries on its merry way without us. Sometimes we actually get on board a great move, and hold on to the trade expecting a multi-day or multi-week move, only to see price retrace some or all of the path it had covered in our favour. These are all very frustrating situations. In this article we shall explore how a simple indicator, based on the Average True Range, can help us solve these dilemmas in a logical, consistent way. We shall explore how ATR can help you: -enter trades with more ease -manage trades with confidence -measure trend strength systematically What is ATR? Simply stated, the Average True Range is a measure of volatility. It tells you how far, on average, price travels during a given time period. What ATR looks like, on a chart As with any indicator, it's important to understand how it's built. Let's start with the "TrueRange" of an asset. The True Range takes into account the current period's range (High - Low) and also compares it with the previous period's close. TR = maximum between (current period high - low) Absolute (current high - previous close) Absolute (current low - previous close) Source: Stockcharts.com The "Average" True Range is something of an exponential moving average of the prior 20 (in our case) True Ranges: Current 20 period ATR = [(Prior ATR x 19) + Current TR] / 20 And after this brief journey into the math world, it's comforting to know that nowadays most brokers include the ATR as a standard indicator in their charting packages so it is not necessary to do all the work ourselves. Using ATR to manage entries and exits Now we know ATR is a measure of volatility. How is this useful? Here is an example: The current Daily ATR on USDCAD is 0.0114 - that's 114 pips. So we know that price has travelled, on average, 114 pips each day during the past 20 days.So let's say we want to short this pair today, during the initial phase of the London Session: At 7:00 AM, price had travelled a mere 27 pips from high to low; that's only 23% of the Daily ATR. So price has much more space to move, if the market intends to pursue its course. If the market wanted to print 100% of its ATR today, it could potentially push to 1.2647 (Asian high - 114 pips) or, if it enters a retracement, it could push up to 1.2838 (Asian low + 114 pips). So each day, we have a measure of how much - at the most - price could move. But price doesn't always cover 100% of its ATR. More often than not, there are cycles of low and high volatility. On average, price tends to cover 70% of its 20 Day ATR. So in our case, that's 70% of 114 pips, which is 80 pips. So that means a potential target for intraday shorts, or a scale out for multi-day shorts, could logically be at 1.2681 (Asian high - 80 pips). What this also means is that if we were stalking an entry, and price had already moved more than 50% of the 20 Day ATR, then there would not have been much space left to cover. This is quite important, especially for intraday trades, because price needs to have space to move. For example, AUDUSD was recently pushed higher, as the RBA was less dovish than expected. Waking up during early Europe, this is what traders saw: Many traders were looking for another push into London off this news, which would usually be a logical expectation, given that central banks and non-farm payrolls have a large impact on market psychology. But remember that trading is a game of probabilities. So what is the probability of price pushing aggressively higher? Moreover, if you are taking a long at the London open, where is your stop? Where does the potential target have to be, in order to achieve even 1R? Taking into consideration these trade management considerations, it really seems like a low probability trade. So going back to the better example on USDCAD, we were looking for shorts with a target of 1.2681: USDCAD 15Min Chart Price did in fact print a 95% ATR day, before pulling back. Like many things in the markets, the 70% ATR level isn't perfect, but it is measured consistently and works more often than not. More importantly, having a clear boundary for taking or avoiding trades (50% mark) and a clear scale out/target (70% mark) and a clear expectation of volatility (100% ATR) allows consistent planning. ATR Pivots - our proprietary indicator By now, most readers are probably thinking how cumbersome it is to calculate these values each day, and stay aware of how much space price has covered in any given time period. Fortunately, we have the solution: ATR Pivots. ATR Pivots overlaid on USDCAD The blue pivots are the weekly pivots. The grey pivots are daily pivots. There are always 4 pivots above the daily & weekly opening price (black) and 4 pivots below the opening price. All pivot levels are user-defined, but in light of what we said above, logical levels to have the pivots drawn at are: +100% ATR +70% ATR +50% ATR +25% ATR Weekly/Daily Open -25% ATR -50% ATR -70% ATR -100% ATR So in this way, with minimal clutter on your charts, you always have the key levels highlighted. Here is the breakdown of the inputs. Everything can be customized: Source: ATR PIVOTS for FXRenew by Craig Consulting Download FXR ATR PIVOTS Using ATR to measure trend strength The benefits of using ATR do not stop with mere entries & exits. Surprisingly, ATR can also help measure the strength of a trend.To illustrate the logic behind this, take 2 currency pairs: -AUDUSD, has an ATR of 74 pips -GBPUSD, has an ATR of 127 pips If we want to play USD weakness, and we want to choose the strongest trend to leg into, how can we possibly compare the performance of the two pairs? They are different in nature: they have a very different volatility profile. In order to compare apples to apples, and make a logical and consistent decision, we can "scale" their performance by their respective ATRs. How do we do this? (Current High - Current Low)/20 Day ATR = Current day performance % Source: Proprietary calculations The highest score (if comparing uptrends) or the lowest score (if comparing downtrends) is the stronger relative trend. Traders failing to account for ATR are really only measuring absolute momentum, which makes it difficult to compare apples to apples. Relative momentum is one possible solution. Here is a chart of the majors' relative momentum scores: Over to You Using the Average True Range in a logical and consistent manner can help you: Avoid taking trades that have low odds of performing well intraday or intraweek Avoid scaling out of a good trade too soon, or holding onto a trade for too long Analyze the quality of a trend in an objective manner. All this makes for consistent, logical and safe trading. How can you apply the ATR to your trading?
  6. Armis

    Stick to the plan written in late 2017, achieving goals step at a time :)
  7. Armis

    Yeah, I've had my hopes up with all these rumours about XRP getting listed on CoinBase. Any way, I knew I will hold this position for months prior entering, so I'm holding for now. Got in at 0.85, so I have my stop just above. Basically, it's a free trade. Let us know if you spot a great broker!
  8. Armis

    Hey Dennis! Good stuff! As you probably already know I have allocated 30% of my FX capital solely for cryptos. Currently all of it is in Ripple (XRP). What would be interesting for me to hear is levels you were able to get in and your expectations (targets) for the price. In the near future I'd like to add: Cardano (ADA) Tron (TRX) Stellar (XLM) Siacoin (SC) Electroneum (ETN) Also would be great if you could share brokers you have chosen to trade. I'm assuming it's through coinbase or a similar alternative? Your input would be much appreciated since I've had very little luck finding a suitable solution (for crypto CFD trading). Cheers!
  9. Armis

    Sure @Dennis#MD. I have been looking in to the matter for couple of weeks before making a decision. For me the most important criteria were: 1. Time you are able to trade. This is probably crucial, since the crypto market is open 24/7, and most brokers will operate on the 24/5 basis. As you are probably aware, cryptos are extremely volatile, so if you are looking at taking a position and holding it longer term like me (weeks instead of days) you want to be able to get out (or get in) at any time and any day. Fe. imagine having a position at +10%, and then your broker closes for the weekend. But because the crypto market never stops, bad things can happen, and next thing you know the market is down 40% just in two days. So that's a gap lower on monday open and it doesn't matter that you had your stop at +5% or break even. So decide what sort of trades will you be taking? Long term vs. short term? 2. Spread This is pretty much straight forward. You want to be able to move in to profit as soon as possible. Some brokers like iqoption are bonkers. 1000usd spread to trade bitcoin. And the worst thing is, that probably a lot people trade with them. So do check that one! 3. Swap This applies to longer term positions. If you carry your position past midnight you will pay (not 100% sure, but i don't think there's a positive swap on cryptos) a swap rate on it. So check the rates for long and short positions. I was not able to find any swap free brokers (as you can in FX). 4. Leverage You won't get crazy numbers like 500:1 like in FX (and you don't want that). But 10:1 or 20:1 could be nice. Although 20:1 is rare in crypto world. 5. Platform For me mt4 or ctrader is ideal, because i know these platforms quite well and can integrate them together in the future. Thing is I was not able to find acceptable option. But that's fine since you can always chart on tradingview or so, and just place pending orders. You would have to use it any way because of the price discrepancies. Fe. if looking at BTC/USD, you should watch coinbase and bitstamp price feeds. So don't take my word for it. Do some research yourself. Brokers I have looked in to are as follows. fxpro.co.uk I have been using them in the past. It's a great broker. Account has to be opened under FCA (not CySec) to be able to trade crypto. Spreads are reasonable, do offer mt4 and ctrader. Have most popular cryptos. Did not choose only because 24/5 avatrade.com Spreads are a bit higher, offer mt4, popular cryptos, 24/5 fbs.com Plenty of account types, offer mt4, popular cryptos. Can't say if this one is 24/5, but my main issue was the execution time. Even on demo it would take a few seconds to go through. And I know they have been around for quite a while, but a broker from Russia does not make me sleep better at night. Also they claim to offer 3000:1 leverage (FX only), that does raise questions. iqoption.com Plenty of choice, but as explained earlier, killer spreads. And their platform is a bit like a toy for little children. xm.com Would have been ok, but again 24/5 The one that i chose is plus500.com Their platform is not great. But as I've said before you can/need to chart elsewhere. They have a mobile platform available too. You have main cryptos to trade. Spreads are low, swap is not bad. It's open 24/7! Leverage on BTC 10:1. Had to deal with support and have to say it's more than decent. EDIT: Positions expire after 24h. Hope this helps. If you got any questions feel free to fire away ;)
  10. Armis

    Alright! Well first of all I'd like to wish everyone happy holidays and an amazing year in 2018! It has been an interesting December for sure to begin with. I was able to reach my targets. Some notable trades of the month: Dow Jones Industrial Average: 300pips XAU/EUR: 240pips CAD/JPY: 130pips There has been a slight change in plans on how I will approach my next step. I have taken out all my original investment out and will move ahead with profits only. This way if things go awry I do have a backup plan. Also I'm splitting my investment capital between two accounts 70/30. So the 70% (FX account) will operate as it has been to date. Let's call it a standard account. I have migrated to new broker as expected (saves me a bunch of money on commissions and spread.Plus can be utilized later, once a track record is decent enough, for signal service). And the 30% (Crypto account) that will be utilized for trading cryptocurrencies only. I have been sceptical for quite a while, and thought I would only get involved if the price corrected for quite a bit. Now the correction has happened and I had to make a decision. So there you have it. Let's see how it goes!
  11. Armis

    November has been great. Even tho I was really busy at work, I have still managed to squeeze in almost 2 weeks of trading and achieve 14.31% gain. In December my goal is to make additional 25% in profits. If I can achieve this number - great, if not, or just shy of it I will be able to add capital from the side. So in any scenario I will be set with what I think is a minimum capital to start building a track record in January, 2018. It would have made sense to start building it from day 1, but I'll be changing brokers at the end of the year, so that messes with it a bit. Ok, that's it for now. Check out the best trade for November. More things to come. Stay tuned!
  12. Armis

    Hi guys, Just a quick update. As you are most likely aware I was not able to find anyone interested to come on board with the project, so I have decided to move ahead solo for now. It will take a bit longer then I originally anticipated, but that's ok. Great things take time! Starting by the end of this month I'll be focusing on building a solid track record and gathering initial capital for the startup at the same time. I'll pop in from time to time to give an update where the project is at.
  13. Armis

    Hi Dennis, Will definitelly do so. As of now, still looking for partner. Good things take time :) Will post when new developments arise.
  14. Hi guys,I'm new in this forum. Will try to keep it short and sweet. I have a great idea to make a profitable, long lasting hyip. And would like to find someone to jump on board. As for requirements, you should have a great command of english (written and spoken), share the vision and passion to create something great. Be reliable, professional and ready to carry out an equal share of work required. If you have web design, skills that's a huge plus, but not mandatory. Just to make it clear I'm not selling anything and this is not a get rich quick scheme. It will require a ton of work, time and money to make it happen. But it will be definitelly worth it. If I got your attention, please let me know and wecan start planning for success! Questions welcome.
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