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Andrea FXMart

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About Andrea FXMart

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  1. EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 20, 2017 The euro against the U.S. dollar surged higher during the Thursday session looking forward to the Brexit talks to get better. Although, there is no final decision yet and the process is still ongoing. Both statements of Merkel and U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has mentioned that there are progress and hinting that there are some deals to be halted in the next few months. This is a positive sign for the euro as it implies that there will be a good deal which is beneficial not only for the U.K. but also to the eurozone. The dollar proceeded with a minor correction during the first half of the day. The market has expectations to the tax reform bill in the U.S. which was delayed for some time that disturbs the market and resulted to a minor sell-off of the greenback until afternoon for the day. In the opening of the U.S. session, the stock market has gone steadily following a minor interruption as the market of its crashed back in 1987 referred as Black Monday. Since then, the dollar has grown stronger just a few hours after the tax reform bill has been approved. This led the way for future revisions which is a good move for the current U.S. administration under Trump’s leadership. It reflects that Trump has had a successful agreement along with with the Democrats which opens the door for more bills to be approved. In effect, this is a really good deal for the dollar which would be felt in the market throughout the course of trading. Hence, the EUR/USD is anticipated to proceed to decline for the day’s session. For today, there is no major news from the eurozone of from the U.S. Yet the dollar bulls will look out our for the proceedings in the tax reform bill that may strengthen the dollar for today.
  2. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2017 The pound-dollar pair continued to move upwards after the weakening of the dollar across the board in the past 24 hours. We believe that there are no fundamentals that drive the market which caused the U.S. dollar to weaken, hence, it all boils down to the condition during the second half of the month accompanied by disappointing news from all over the world. Generally, the main focus is turned to the positioning and flows rather than the fundamental news. Moreover, there are reports that calling UK Prime Minister Theresa May to stop the Brexit negotiations without any settled trade agreements. This is the ongoing agreement about Brexit since last week. So far, there have been barely some progress with the process, showing some strength and getting nearer to the end of the talks while PM Theresa May is planning to fly to Brussels in order to resume the discourse and bring out a resolution. The appeal for a no deal and demanding May to leave the talks are much preferred compared to anything else for this current time. The United Kingdom could decide to work out some good deal which should offer justice both on the European Union and the Britain since there is some block as of this moment. Eventually, the talks could possibly continue to gain traction which is a positive factor the sterling pound. Ultimately, the British retail sales figures and American unemployment claims data are expected to be published within this day. The retail sales are projected to contribute volatility to the Cable pair, considering the upcoming statistics from the UK were sluggish in the past couple of weeks that prompted the market to be very cautious since this data is capable of identifying the trend of the British currency throughout the entire week.
  3. USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 17, 2017 During the daytime trading on Monday, the American dollar traded sideways versus the Loonie dollar, followed by a break through the 1.25 handle. Eventually, the markets contained high volatility but the positive thing about this move is the reversed flow against the oil sector. The oil markets tend to rally as well as the U.S dollar but this appeared to be unusual which could give a negative sign for the CAD. The 1.25 region below is projected to continue its attractiveness for the price but there is a possibility for the rally to resume according to the skeptical actions by the Canadian dollar. A break over the 1.2250 mark even on the daily close will enable the market to keep on moving upwards or may be an attempt to reach the 1.2750 mark. The markets would certainly be volatile due to the instability of oil industry along with some back and forth movements. Considering the massive volume of volatility, it is much preferred to gradually establish a position. A break down underneath the 1.24 mark does not necessarily indicate a bearish tone again since dealing with the recent action seems difficult. While the markets would likely try to generate some kind of base. Moreover, the oil markets are moving nearer to the massive resistance which could further provide lots of bearish pressure towards the Loonies. Take note that the Bank of Canada increased its interest rate and suddenly mentioned that the rate hikes should be considered as automatic. With this regard, the market appears to completely turn around against the CAD.
  4. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017 There is a consolidation in during the trading session of the EUR/USD pair as it fluctuates up and down for the day without specific trajectory. The Resistance area is found close to the 1.18880 and it cannot be determined yet the market will be able to break this area or its direction for short-term. The price moved headed to the level mentioned and it seems that there will be a lot of selling to take place which would result in a minor correction. Although, there is choppiness present in the pair and it might be best to stay on the sidelines. The data from the U.S. particularly the PPI has no big impact on the movement of the pair and move sluggishly but steadfastly. The dollar is moving behind with the NFP data came in weaker anticipated in the previous week. The FOMC minutes also gave a hawkish sentiment as awaited by the market. The trend is hinting for an uptrend of the EUR/USD pair to persist both for short and medium term while the question remains if the Federal Reserve will raise the rate for December and continue to affect the market. Today, the market may get answers as the CPI data from the U.S. will be released later this day which put the Fed member at a worrisome state while dollar bulls are hoping for a positive output for today and keep open the possibility of a rate hike in December. Other than the CPI data, the retail sales data is also scheduled to be released for today which would greatly influence the short-term activity of the pair.
  5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 12, 2017 The U.S. dollar declined at the outset of Wednesday’s trading session, however, the bucks were able to find support on top the 112 handle to conduct a reversal, showing active existence. The American dollar must keep on finding lots of support at 112 level because every pull back will provide plenty of support from that region. It is better when it offered some “floor” but a break down underneath there would offer a massive support below the 111 mark. With this, buyers will return to the market in a short period of time except when the Federal Reserve rejected the proposed interest rate hike. The issue about rate hike has been the talk of the town for some time and maybe it’s time for the Fed to have at least some hints about their position regarding this matter, as the market really needs to see some progress or else they might lose their credibility. Many are intrigued on how many times the Fed will increase its rates which most participants would search within the Meeting Minutes. Hence, it will take some time to get a clear answer but this idea was already established within the marketplace and probably there is no any reason to conduct such rally. The Bank of Japan remains to be soft which makes it reasonable to enter the 114.50 region. This level is the top of the longer-term consolidation. It appears that market imposes a “buy only” mode.
  6. GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 11, 2017 The British currency traded sideways versus the Japanese yen and continue to hold the 148 handle. This level has gained lots of attention lately and it seems ready to move from side to side, as of this writing. However, a break on top of the 140.50 region will push the markets to go above the 150 handle. This region acquired attention with longer-term considering it’s a large, round, psychologically significant number. A cut through over that area would enable the market to continue moving upwards in the longer-term and the target to reach the 155 mark eventually. A pull back from that region could possibly drive the market near the 147 level below, which appears to be very supportive. With the given scenario, the market is required to search for buyers around that range. But a breakdown beneath that would likely descend to 145 handle which is a round number where traders are continuously involved in such target regions. There is a tendency that the market would be highly sensitive to risk appetite and participants should be paying attention to stock markets because the pound-yen pair might ascend in case a rally occurs or decline upon the roll over. Moreover, volatility is projected to enter the market and the reason for the sideways trading and the short term is the expectations for further actions by the Fed Reserve. Generally, world markets are slightly overbought and it is helpful if the bullish pressure will keep on going. In the meantime, traders should wait for signals.
  7. NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2017 There is volatility present in trading the NZD/USD pair as it reached a lower limit in the opening on Monday where this will be reversed and fill the gap and proceed with a decline again. There is a possibility for this to reach the level of 0.70 where there will most likely be a support level. This area has been supportive in the past which was also resistive and anticipates volatility around that number. Take into consideration that the New Zealand is highly sensitive to commodities as well as the global risk appetite. It can be noted that the stock market is performing well although, there is less liquidity in the New Zealand dollar compared to other currencies. Hence, there will most likely be more volatility than other markets. It underwent a downtrend in the past few days which signifies the continuation of a bearish pressure. It’s too early to say if the market will break lower than 0.70 region and if it does, this would not be a good sign. Hereinafter, the market will look for the 0.68 level below as the next target support level based on the long-term charts. Moreover, the Australian dollar is dropping which usually moves in the similar direction as the New Zealand dollar. It will either move up or be sold unless a breakout happens higher than the 0.7125 region and look at higher levels which is most likely above the 0.72 level. Volatility will not be surprising in this pair and seller will consider the riskier currencies in the present.
  8. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 9, 2017 The U.S. dollar rallied to the upside in the course of the Friday session which came out following the mixed report of the jobs data. Although most traders will pay no attention to the jobs data in the aftermath of the two hurricanes. The 10-year interest rates in the U.S. also surged which further drove the market higher. There is a possibility got the USD/JPY major pair follow suit as there are no returns committed in the 10-year notes. Consequently, it seems that the market proceeds directed upward reaching the peak of the consolidation which is at the level of 114.50 up to the 115 handle. Overall, there will most likely be a breakout lower than 115 handle and the market should carry on with its uptrend at higher levels and result in a “buy-and-hold” trend. There will be more buying positions when the trades decline and there is a chance for a pullback to occur and take profit of the outburst during the Friday session. The trend could possibly break to the upper channel and attain the level towards 120 handle which is a relevant target being a big round number. Volatility will still persist in the market yet there is a high chance for buyers to dominate since the comeback of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen. There will be less worry regarding the uptrend unless it breaks below 112.00 level. Nevertheless, there will be plenty of support found below. For the long term, buyers will have a trend in the market as the interest rates for 10-year notes from the U.S. will ascend in value which would remain to put pressure to progress upward in the market. At the same time, the stock market will advance which will also associate the pair.
  9. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 6, 2017 The American currency weakened versus its Japanese counterpart during the trading session yesterday, however, the dollar found adequate support around the 112.50 region to manage a reversal and bounce. It is possible that the market will keep on searching for buyers below, and buying the dips appeared to be attractive. Moreover, the interest rate differential would likely take the side of the USD, since the Bank of Japan is far from any interest rate hike decisions. On one side, the Fed Reserve is expected to tighten its monetary policy which has the tendency for the pair to drive higher. Take note that the USD/JPY has high sensitivity on risk and the stock market should focus on it when they tend to move upwards, for this could place bullish pressure within the trading area. Buying the dips is preferred for it could provide buying opportunities linked with significant values. The 114.50 mark offers massive resistance hurdle which is extended through 115 handle. Breaking over the 115 handle would imply a “buy-and-hold” in the market. Therefore, it will send the market near the 120 region, but it requires a lot of time to get into it. Ability to break down under the 112 area, the 111 level below would be the next target. Shorting is ruled out due to the resumption of buying pressure. Eventually, buyers will dominate the market, nevertheless, the dollar-yen pair seems volatile which could trigger varying issues. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious.
  10. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: October 4, 2017 The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen surged but then it declined towards the level of 113.25. It declined to the area of 112.75 with a bit of support. Hence, the market will attempt to rally from this level and resume the general uptrend recently. After some time, the price will further move up due to the risk of appetite from traders. Moreover, there is a possibility for the Federal Reserve to increase its rates or at least the be stricter with the monetary policy. Therefore, the market will move towards the 113.25 level then towards 114.50 and higher. The market will test the peak of the whole consolidation which sways to and fro. If the market successfully breaks higher than the 115 handle, the market would move much higher which is presumably towards 118 level. If the price pullbacks from the said level, there would be more opportunities present to resume the value. It seems that the 112 will be largely supportive and the floor of consolidation will be seen at the level of 108. A pullback would open buying opportunities considering the support below. Eventually, both sellers and buyers will gain profits with the presence of volatility in the market if given sufficient time. Notably, the market is influenced by the general stock market which is another indicator that must be monitored besides the S&P 500 and the DAX etc. Nevertheless, the stock market will climb higher as it is in a good condition.
  11. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 3, 2017 The British pound against the U.S. dollar pair had a high volatility at times. A few days back, the bulls were dominating the market and various resistance levels were surpassed. This was supported by a strong data from the U.K. and moves from the both the Bank of England and the government of U.K. which further supported the British pound. This kept the pound afloat amid the uncertainty brought by the Brexit process and pushed the currency even much higher. Last week, the pound is undergoing correction at a faster rate in reaction to the good performance in the past few weeks. The U.K. prime minister is saying that she anticipates the Brexit will be settled after a few more years which is not what the market is expecting whilst majority expects to it materialize sooner. There are also speculations that the government spearheaded by the Prime minister Theresa May will eventually collapse. On the other hand, the Bank of England is uncertain on deciding its next move. Moreover, it seems that the data from the U.K. is also sliding down in the past few weeks with the manufacturing data from the UK yesterday clearly depicting that. This resulted in a decline of the GBP/USD pair and dropped more than 120 pips during the day while the dollar rallied dominating the market. For today, the construction PMI data from the UK will be released but there’ll be no major data coming from the U.S. The dollar will continue to rise but poses a threat to change the trend. At the same time, this will keep the GBP/USD under pressure for the day as the market wait for a larger data to come out later in the week.
  12. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 2, 2017 The GBP/USD pair showed some choppiness in the past couple of days without any definite direction. The British pound was able to recover in the previous weeks, considering the fact that it is one of the strongest currency in the market. However, the Sterling was also affected by the dollar buying, forcing the Cable pair for a correction over the 1.35 level to trade beneath the 1.34 region in the past few days. Previously, the pound-dollar pair failed to broke the 1.3420 area after certain attempts which the pair did during the USD weakening. In case that this pattern keep on going, it would likely cause further weakness in the GBP and could push the pair downwards. Moreover, we are waiting for a bundle of data from the United States later this week, which could possibly manage the greenback well bid in the near-term. These events when combined would likely place the sterling in the pressured area in the short-term. On one side, the sterling pound was supported by the Bank of England (BOE), as the bank did not lose the possibility for a rate hike despite the ongoing Brexit process. Primarily, the market expected that the BoE will remain quiet during this kind of precarious scenario but the most recent meeting of the UK central bank clearly announced that they will only take action if necessary. This has provided support to the GBP, considering that British government showed optimistic views regarding the retention of the free market access to the European Union. Ultimately, the manufacturing PMI data from the United Kingdom and the United States which could probably enough volatility. While it is essential for the bulls to break 1.3420 mark in the near-term for the completion of an upward trend.
  13. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 27, 2017 The British pound has been competing with the surge of the dollar and a basket of currencies is already behind of the currency. The performance of the British currency has been better than other currencies as reflected in the past few weeks as it was supported by the Bank of England and the U.K. government which keeps it from collapsing. The central bank supports the currency which allows the probability of a rate hike for the year. It seems that the bank would not disturb the economy with the ongoing process of Brexit that flows at a faster pace than in their last meeting. Although, they noted that they would interfere when necessary. It has improved the confidence of the U.K. economy which also pushes the currency at a slower but steady in the past few weeks. The U.K. government aptly proceeds with the Brexit process through their parliament which helped the situation and supported the pound to rise stronger over time. Although the U.K. Prime Minister May lengthened the timeline for Brexit in the new few years. In the meantime, her approach implies that the both the nation and the investors trust the economy. Today, there is no major economic news from the U.K. anticipated but the durable goods data will be released from the U.S. The greenback is presumed to hold the current rates because of the expected announcement in the afternoon from Trump to implement a new tax system. Consequently, the GBP/USD pair will be put under pressure.
  14. USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 25, 2017 The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday session as the market looks for support close to the 112 level. Hence, the market will be more appealing to buyers because of the Federal Reserve plans to reduce their balance sheet. This market is sensitive to the “risk on” factor added to the overall interest rate outlook for both central banks. The Federal is way earlier than the Bank of Japan regarding the rise in interest rates that makes it highly probable to move to the upper channel. It may be not wise to short this pair for now. However, there are buying opportunities in pullbacks. On the weekly chart, there is a consolidation seen in the 108 level below and 114.50 level above for long term. The next target level will be 114.50 while a decline would offer value to the market. There might be some noise every now and then because of “risks off” incidents worldwide in consideration of the upsurge in the stock market. Incremental increase and opening bigger positions are the best means of trading this pair in the background of an upward rally. If the market breaks over the 115 handle, it will lead to a “buy-and-hold” situation although this may take some time to happen. For now, buyers will predominate this pair for short-term to take advantage of the current situation.
  15. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017 The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent. Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery. The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone. In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune. Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.
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