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  1. Date : 29th October 2020. Apple – Earnings Tonight. APPLE, Daily The world’s largest company, APPLE (APPL), report their 4th quarter earnings ending September 30th after the close of the New York stock market later today The consensus among analysts is for revenues of $64 billion versus $64 billion in Q4 2019 and earnings per share (EPS) of $0.69 (with estimates ranging from 0.54 to 0.8) versus $0.76 in the same quarter last year. Apple hardware has been clearly hit from the disruption in the supply chains, starting with factories and shops in China and rippling out across the wi
  2. Date : 28th October 2020. Alphabet Q3 earnings: Focus on advertising revenue. Once again the FAANGs excluding Netflix plan to report their earnings the same day within 30 minutes of each other. FAANGs illustrate 20% of the S&P500’s total value. Even though most of them face increasing antitrust scrutiny, all posted an impressive rally this year as their shares have surged and sustained close to record highs as the pandemic reckoned with online services such as shopping, streaming, clouds. Hence in addition to our earnings articles, today we will focus also on Alphabet’s third
  3. Date : 27th October 2020. USD improves, GBP Mixed, CB decisions & TRY. The Dollar firmed up into the London open and beyond, paring declines seen earlier in pre-Europe trading in Asia. The move drove gold and oil prices lower, too, indicating there has been some depth in dollar buying, although the magnitude of movement hasn’t been great. US equity index futures have managed modest gains after the S&P 500 closed with a 1.9% loss yesterday, though investor sentiment in global markets remains decidedly restive. Most Asian stock markets declined, and Australia’s ASX 200 e
  4. Date : 26th October 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. A gigantic week is coming with FAANGs reporting their Q3 earnings, along with the rate decisions and monetary policy statements from three key Central Banks (ECB, BoJ, and BoC) as the second wave of Covid-19 is hitting the world with full force. Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be also on what emerges from the Brexit talks and how markets will reform in the final week prior to the US Elections. Focus will be on inflation data from the biggest economies in the world, including the US, China and Europe. Monday – 26 Oct
  5. Date : 23rd October 2020. Dollar Dips as Equities escalate. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar fell back concomitantly with rallying European stock markets and US index futures, which was likely a repositioning dynamic after declining over the last two weeks. EURUSD rebounded quite strongly, rising back above 1.1850 from a three-day low at 1.1787. Preliminary October PMI data in the services and composite readings out of the Eurozone and UK undershot the median forecast of economists, but didn’t impact the Euro or Sterling. Technically, the H1 chart has moved over the 50-hour moving av
  6. Date : 22nd October 2020. Volatility and US elections. US Elections had been and always expected to be an event historically extremely volatile globally. Elections similar to other political or banking sector events are notably treated by market participants with anticipation and speculation. As discussed in our HF Markets Q4 Outlook, markets look to have already pricing in the possibility of Biden’s victory even though they overall maintain an increasing cautious optimism, holding US Dollar basket to 2018 low territory. Election-year fund flows, 1993-2020 Historically, it has be
  7. Date : 21st October 2020. USD Down, GBP & Crypto’s Higher, CAD data. The Dollar underperformed while the Pound outperformed and the Yen, diverging from its usual close correlation with the Dollar, was measuring as the second strongest of the main currencies. Global stock markets have been skittish, with European indices dropping and US equity index futures giving back gains in returning to near net unchanged levels. Sterling has rallied quite strongly, showing a 1.0%+ gain on the Dollar at prevailing levels, as it rallied to test 1.3100. EURGBP is back under 0.9100 and dow
  8. Date : 16th October 2020. Election2020 – Only Three Weekends Remain. A little over 2 weeks – 12 trading days – until the US Election, and the Town Hall meetings co-hosted on the two main US national TV networks provided nothing really new with regards to policy or outlook. However, it did provide the opportunity to have both meetings running consecutively side-by-side. President Trump was in Miami, in the must-win state of Florida (29 Electoral College votes) with NBC, while former Vice President Biden was in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, another key swing state with 20 Electoral colle
  9. Date : 15th October 2020. European Equities Heavy on Covid-19 Resurgence. Trading Leveraged Products is risky GER30, UK100, H1 European stock markets are selling off, with the GER30 now down 3%, the UK100 2.3%, as investors price out stimulus hopes in the US and prepare for fresh economic setbacks as the second round of Covid-19 hit Europe and leads to increasingly strict restrictions. France has announced a curfew for Paris, that confines citizens to their homes between 9 pm and 6 am for four weeks, in the U.K. regional lockdowns are widened with London moving to tier 2 (No house
  10. Date : 14th October 2020. Big Bank Earnings & PPI lift sentiment. USA500, Daily Bank of America (BoA) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both reported third-quarter earnings earlier that beat estimates. BoA reported net income of $4.9bn, or 0.51 cents per share (EPS) compared to the consensus estimate of 0.49 cents EPS. Revenue in the same quarter last year was $5.8bn and only $3.5bn for the second quarter of 2020. Like JPMorgan and Citibank yesterday, the recovery in Q3 was the reduction in provisions for bad loans down to “only” $1.4 bn from the colossal $5.1bn in Q2. Total re
  11. Date : 13th October 2020. Equity markets rally loses some momentum in EU session. Risk aversion picked up again, underpinned by negative vaccine news amid reports that Johnson & Johnson halted its Covid-19 trial due to “unexplained illness”. The December 10-year Bund future is up 1 tick, while in cash markets Treasury yields have dropped back -1.2 bp to 0.76% after yesterday’s holiday. In FX markets EUR and GBP both declined against a largely stronger US Dollar. Negative vaccine headlines weighed on sentiment overnight, but tech stocks remained supported and the prospect of ad
  12. Date : 12th October 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. The risk that virus developments will disrupt the recovery is back in play and very real globally. The lack of another round of stimulus in the US, ongoing US-China frictions and US elections weigh further on a potential economic recovery, as, after all, there is still a long way to go. The EU summit and Q3 earnings season kick off in the next week, with most of the large financials reporting. Data-wise, in focus will be inflation data from the biggest economies in the world, including the US, China and Europe. Tuesday
  13. Date : 9th October 2020. The last leg of EU-UK trade talks OR Not? The outlook isn’t good for either the UK or Europe given the surge in new Covid cases. New restrictions, from travel limitations to pub closures to local lockdowns, are being introduced almost daily in the UK, and this will have a negative impact on economic activity. The government’s furlough scheme is being withdrawn this month, and being replaced by a narrower, more targeted wage protection scheme, though the Chancellor has announced there will be a new scheme to support those affected by local lockdowns. Dovish si
  14. Date : 8th October 2020. FX Update – October 8 – Post Schnabel, Bailey, Jordan & Pre-Claims & Macklem. EURUSD, H1 EURUSD has settled to near net unchanged levels near 1.1750 after ebbing back from a 1.1781 high, which was set in early London trading. Dollar weakness had been a driver earlier, and the currency has seen recouped lost ground. Uncertainties prevail about next month’s US election and the risk that it will be contested, about the Brexit endgame, and, increasingly, about new Covid restrictions and lockdowns in North America and, more especially, Europe. More dov
  15. Date : 7th October 2020. Tonight October 7 – Pence & Harris – Does it matter? In short yes. Tonight (October 7) is the vice-presidential, one and only, head to head debate and after last week’s bad tempered, chaotic first presidential debate expectations were limited. Indeed little attention or significance is traditionally given the V-P debate, however, the debate has taken on a new significance following the news flow in the last few days. “Expect the unexpected” is a bit of a cliché and one often used to describe the first four years of the Trump presidency but the last few da
  16. Date : 6th October 2020. US Trade Deficit at 14-year high. The US trade deficit widened almost exactly as expected to a 14-year high $67.1 bln that slightly beat the $67.0 bln gap in July of 2008, leaving the largest gap since the $68.3 bln figure in August of 2006. We saw prior gaps of $63.4 (was $63.6) bln in July, $53.5 bln in June, and $57.9 bln in May. Though the deficit rise tracked estimates, it incorporated small but offsetting downside surprises for both exports and imports. Exports rose 2.2% to $171.9 bln and imports were up 3.2% to $239.0 bln, following respective July gai
  17. Date : 5th October 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. The announcement on Friday that US President Trump, the First Lady and White House counsel Hope Hicks had all tested Covid positive rattled market sentiment. This comes on top of many European countries renewing travel restrictions and quarantine measures and introducing new virus measures and regional lockdowns. Globally, concerns that the still fragile recovery will be disrupted have left markets looking for additional monetary and fiscal support, with the latter once again lagging while central banks are keeping their op
  18. Date : 2nd October 2020. FX Update October 2 – Ahead of NFP. USDJPY, H1 The Yen has rallied versus other currencies amid a pronounced risk-off positioning theme in global markets on news that President Trump, along with the First Lady and White House public relations counsellor, have tested positive for Covid. S&P 500 E-minis are 1.4% lower, and Asian & European stock markets have also taken a hit. USDJPY dove by over 0.5% in pegging a low at 104.94. EURJPY fell to a four-day low and the high beta AUDJPY cross plummeted by over 1% to two-day lows under 75.00. Follo
  19. Date : 1st October 2020. Brexit headlines driving the markets. The UK currency took a sharp rotation lower on Brexit related developments. Weighing were reports that the EU and UK are struggling on key issues in trade negotiations, and with the European Commission president von de Leyen announcing that the EU has taken the first step in a legal infringement procedure against the UK in relation to the controversial Internal Market Bill. However later on an FT report cited UK officials with inside knowledge saying that the EU and UK have reached a compromise on the state aid issue, con
  20. Date : 30th September 2020. ADP, NFP and the change in their correlation. Today ADP reported a 749k sure in private payroll employment in September, almost double the 400k expectation, after an upwardly revised 481k (was 428k) increase in August. There were solid gains across industries. The service sector added another 552k jobs, with the goods sector adding 196k. Manufacturing jobs were up a hefty 130k. In services, trade/transport posted a big 186k gain, while leisure/hospitality jobs increased 92k, and education/health employment was up 90k. Professional/business services adde
  21. Date : 24th September 2020. US Claims Disappoint, again & Equities under pressure. USA500, H1 & Daily A 4,000 initial claims rise to 870,000 in the third week of September followed a -27,000 drop to 866,000 in the BLS survey week, leaving a disappointing rise as we now log the fourth week with the new additive seasonal factors. We saw a -167,000 continuing claims drop to a modestly higher than expected 12.58 million in the BLS survey week, after a downward bump that left a -797,000 decline to 12.747 million in the first week of September. The insured jobless rate fell to
  22. Date : 23rd September 2020. FX Update – September 23 – Day 3 of Dollar Gains. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar is up for a third consecutive day, even managing gains against the Yen as global stock markets lifted out of recent correction lows. Solid US data yesterday, including the August existing home sales and the September Richmond Fed index, have been in the mix, alongside a flurry of dovish signalling from central bank policymakers. BoJ Governor Kuroda earlier stressed that the Fed’s recent policy regime change is similar to the stance the Japanese central bank took in 2016, which he desc
  23. Date : 22nd September 2020. FX Update September 22 – USD, YEN, AUD & GBP all in play. Trading Leveraged Products is risky AUDJPY, Daily The Dollar and Yen have remained firm and pushed ahead of Monday’s highs. The Australian Dollar has been the major mover of note out of the main currencies we track, falling to new lows after RBA deputy governor Debelle said that the central bank is watching the currency “carefully” and that forex intervention is a policy option, as is negative interest rates (while stressing that this doesn’t mean it’s on the table). AUDUSD hit a low at 0.7177
  24. Date : 21st September 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. After an exciting week, the markets continue to digest central bank decisions while waiting for a fresh catalyst. Rising virus infections around the world remain in focus as there is the fear that the equality of hospitalization and deaths will change if the virus spreads from young holiday markets to older generations, and with restrictions ramped up again there is concern that economic activity will be hit again. Meanwhile US-China tensions and no-trade deal Brexit is back in play after BoE was bri
  25. Date : 18th September 2020. FX Update September 18 – A volatile 24hrs. The Dollar has scraped out a two-day low at 92.76 in the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, with EURUSD concurrently pegging a two-day high at 1.1868, gaining quite sharply from yesterday’s five-week low at 1.1736. A steadying in stock markets today has seen the Dollar ebb back after finding safe haven demand during the worst of this week’s sharp sell-off across global equity markets. The Pound has come under modest pressure against most other currencies. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2941. The WHO is warn
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