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  1. Date : 24th September 2020. US Claims Disappoint, again & Equities under pressure. USA500, H1 & Daily A 4,000 initial claims rise to 870,000 in the third week of September followed a -27,000 drop to 866,000 in the BLS survey week, leaving a disappointing rise as we now log the fourth week with the new additive seasonal factors. We saw a -167,000 continuing claims drop to a modestly higher than expected 12.58 million in the BLS survey week, after a downward bump that left a -797,000 decline to 12.747 million in the first week of September. The insured jobless rate fell to
  2. Date : 23rd September 2020. FX Update – September 23 – Day 3 of Dollar Gains. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar is up for a third consecutive day, even managing gains against the Yen as global stock markets lifted out of recent correction lows. Solid US data yesterday, including the August existing home sales and the September Richmond Fed index, have been in the mix, alongside a flurry of dovish signalling from central bank policymakers. BoJ Governor Kuroda earlier stressed that the Fed’s recent policy regime change is similar to the stance the Japanese central bank took in 2016, which he desc
  3. Date : 22nd September 2020. FX Update September 22 – USD, YEN, AUD & GBP all in play. Trading Leveraged Products is risky AUDJPY, Daily The Dollar and Yen have remained firm and pushed ahead of Monday’s highs. The Australian Dollar has been the major mover of note out of the main currencies we track, falling to new lows after RBA deputy governor Debelle said that the central bank is watching the currency “carefully” and that forex intervention is a policy option, as is negative interest rates (while stressing that this doesn’t mean it’s on the table). AUDUSD hit a low at 0.7177
  4. Date : 21st September 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. After an exciting week, the markets continue to digest central bank decisions while waiting for a fresh catalyst. Rising virus infections around the world remain in focus as there is the fear that the equality of hospitalization and deaths will change if the virus spreads from young holiday markets to older generations, and with restrictions ramped up again there is concern that economic activity will be hit again. Meanwhile US-China tensions and no-trade deal Brexit is back in play after BoE was bri
  5. Date : 18th September 2020. FX Update September 18 – A volatile 24hrs. The Dollar has scraped out a two-day low at 92.76 in the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, with EURUSD concurrently pegging a two-day high at 1.1868, gaining quite sharply from yesterday’s five-week low at 1.1736. A steadying in stock markets today has seen the Dollar ebb back after finding safe haven demand during the worst of this week’s sharp sell-off across global equity markets. The Pound has come under modest pressure against most other currencies. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2941. The WHO is warn
  6. Date : 17th September 2020. The Guppy dips to 135.00, having stalled at 136.00. GBPJPY, Daily Both the UK and Japan are in the middle of political upheavals, (the Brexit Trade talks and Internal Market Bill on one side and the handover from one political dynasty to his trusted lieutenant on the other. Earlier today we had the BOJ signalling No Change to current policy as the new PM Suga completes his first few days in the role. The BOE has just published their statement¹ and minutes from their latest meeting, and again it’s no change across the board, (excuse the pun), although t
  7. Date : 16th September 2020. FX Update September 16 – A weaker USD ahead of the FED. EURUSD has rallied by just over 50 pips from the intraday low in posting a high at 1.1882. This swings yesterday’s six-day peak at 1.1901 back into scope. Dollar weakness is driving the move, which is being facilitated by strong gains in Cable (0.6%) and in the AUDUSD and NZDUSD (both 0.5%). USDJPY touched the key psychological 105.00, S2 and new seven-week low from a pivot yesterday at 105.50 and highs last week of 106.38. Regarding the FOMC, no changes are expected in policy, and while the
  8. Date : 15th September 2020. What you need to know today? Trading Leveraged Products is risky Risk seemed to bounce back yesterday, but investors turned cautious again as the FOMC meeting comes into view. Data out of China, including industrial production and retail sales, beat expectations and the PBOC injected 600 bln yuan via a 1 year MLF, which helped China bourses to move higher. Hang Seng and CSI 300 meanwhile are up 0.5% and 0.7%, also helped by comments out of China that a vaccine could be taken in November. The main US equity indexes closed on Wall Street yesterday with gai
  9. Date : 14th September 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks – the Fed, BoJ and BoE– will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference. However, markets’ attention will be focused on Brexit jitters, virus concerns and lingering US-China tensions which will also remain in the mix. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. Monday – 14 September 2020 Leadership election of the ruling LDP – Japan UK Inflation
  10. Date : 9th September 2020. No-Deal Brexit : Odd rising? How about Sterling? A a no-deal Brexit outcome is now a much greater risk. The London Times have reported that senior members of Prime Minister Johnson’s party are warning him about the risks of a no-deal exit from the EU’s single market, and that the plan to unilaterally dilute the Withdrawal Agreement is a risky move. Johnson’s move may be tactical, aimed at turning a weak negotiating position into a strong one before political leaders become involved in the Brexit endgame, which is set to happen between now and the EU leader
  11. Date : 8th September 2020. FX Update – 8 September – Sterling STILL centre stage. GBPUSD, H1 The head of the UK government’s legal department has quit, according to sources cited by the FT,¹ (paywall) who report that Sir Jonathan Jones is “very unhappy” about the government’s decision to overwrite parts of the Northern Ireland protocol that was enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement. This is a significant development, as it shows the government’s intent on leaving the single market at year-end without a deal, if necessary, rather than being a mere negotiating tactic. The unilatera
  12. Date : 7th September 2020. Events to Look Out for This Week. The shortened week starts with the major markets closed for Labor Day, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC and ECB rate decisions and Press Conferences, and Inflation from the US. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. Monday – 07 September 2020 Labor Day – US, Canada closed Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of
  13. Date : 1st September 2020. Risks for UK Economy. The markets continue to take a sanguine view of the apparently stalled progress in the EU and UK trade talks. All things Brexit continue to go down to the wire, and expectations for any real progress are low until much nearer the deadline, which is widely accepted as being the EU leaders’ summit in October. The consensus view is that a deal will be struck. There are grounds to doubt there can be anything other than a narrow deal, given the intransigence on the EU’s level-playing-field rules and fishing rights. A bare-bones deal or a
  14. Date : 31st August 2020. FX Update – August 31 – The USD trend persists. EURUSD, H1 The Dollar posted fresh trend lows against some currencies before recovering in low volume, (London is closed today) end-of-month re-balancing trades. The framework regime shift at the Fed, announced by Chairman Powell last week, effectively reaffirmed the dollar softening trend, concomitantly with shorter dated inflation-adjusted Treasury yields posting fresh lows. The yields on the 5- and 7-year real constant maturity Treasury notes were indicated on Friday at new seven-year-plus lows, at -1.40%
  15. Date : 27th August 2020. The “big” day. With all eyes on Powell, FX markets traded within a narrow range overnight. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are both up 0.1%, while US futures are slightly in the red after producing fresh record highs for the USA500 and USA100 yesterday, while most Asia stock markets have beaten a retreat. The USA100 is holding above the latest near term support at 11,930. The technical picture remains strongly positive for Wall Street in general not only on risk appetite gains but also on tech stocks rally after the reports from Bloomberg that Amazon’s f
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