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analyst75

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  1. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 24 - 28, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair trended upwards last week, briefly went above the resistance line at 1.0750, and then retraced southwards. There are support lines at 0.0700 and 0.0650, which may attempt to impede any bearish attempts this week. The bearishness in the market still holds, until price goes above the resistance line at 1.0800, which is supposed to happen this week. The outlook on EURUSD and other EUR pairs, is bullish for this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This month, USDCHF has generally moved between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0100, having brought about a neutral bias on the market. Movements above the level at 1.0000 would cause short-term bullish signals, and movements below the level would cause short-term bearish signals, while the long-term bias remain neutral. Price is expected to go south this week, reaching the support level at 0.9900. Protracted selling pressure would be needed to break that support level to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish As is was anticipated, GBPUSD went significantly upwards last week; and so were other GBP pairs (EURGBP went south). Price skyrocketed by 370 pips, reaching the distribution territory 1.2900. Price has moved sideways since then – in what could be called a pause in the northward journey. This week, the outlook on GBPUSD, as well as other GBP pairs, remains bullish. So, when momentum returns to the market, it would most probably favor bulls. Price may target the distribution territories at 1.2850, 1.2900 and 1.2950 this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument consolidated throughout last week, in a context of a downtrend. A movement above the supply level at 111.00 would result in a bullish signal, as the current bearish bias is overridden. A movement below the demand level at 108.00 would result in a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, as price goes further south. The outlook on USD/JPY is bearish for this week. Therefore, southward a southward movement is more likely. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross pair made effort to go up last week, rising from the demand zone at 115.00, and reaching the supply zone at 117.50 (a movement of 250 pips). The bullish effort was not strong enough to override the extant bearish outlook on the market. Price was engaged in some bearish correction on Friday; plus the last week rise in price may turn out to be a good opportunity to sell short at better prices. The outlook on other JPY pairs is also bearish for this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If we have trained properly, if we understand our planning, if we have done our preparation, our system execution should be a matter of routine.” – Ken Long Source: www.tallinex.com
  2. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 17 - 21, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD consolidated from Monday to Friday, save a faint rally that was witnessed on Wednesday. The bearish bias on the pair still holds, though another week-long consolidation would lead it into a neutral zone. This week, attempts would be made to push price upwards, and that would be something that cannot override the current bearish bias unless price goes above the resistance line at 1.0800. Until that resistance line is broken to the upside, any rallies seen here should be taken as good “sell” signals. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Just like EURUSD, USDCHF consolidated last week, in a context of an uptrend (albeit some shallow bearish correction has been witnessed on smaller time horizons). Price has been able to stay above the support level of 1.0000; for a movement below that support level would result in a bearish bias. Price could reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 within the next several trading days. This week, the movement on USDCHF is subject to whatever happens to EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable went up by 190 pips, testing the distribution territory at 1.2550, before a shallow correction that was witnessed at the end of last week. The outlook on Cable remains bullish (and some bullishness would be detected on GBP pairs as well). The distribution territory at 1.2550 would be tested again and most probably, breached to the upside, as price then goes on towards other distribution territories at 1.2600, 1.2650 and 1.2700. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish As it was predicted, USDJPY went south by nearly 290 pips last week, thus ending the flat movement that happened in the market between April 3 and April 7. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the outlook on it remains bearish for this week and this month (an outlook that is also true of other JPY pairs). This week, bears would make attempt to push price below the demand levels at 108.50, 108.00 and 107.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Our bearish targets for this market were exceeded last week, since price closed below the supply zone at 115.50., now aiming at the demand zone at 115.00. Price dropped 270 pips last week – having dropped roughly 730 pips since March 13, 2017. Further and further bearish movement is envisaged as price goes towards the demand zones at 115.00, 114.50 and 114.00. These are initial targets for the next several trading days, as they could be exceeded. Temporary bullish attempts could also be witnessed this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It feels good when I look at returns of big hedge funds, and see that I beat many of them almost every year.” - Roland Manuhutu Source: www.tallinex.com
  3. Speculation would first seem to be one of the easiest things on earth because you might think of making money by hitting bid and ask buttons for trading instruments of your choice. Hitting bid and ask buttons can be learned by everybody, but it remains a mystery that doing this does not bring easy money. It is no longer a secret that majority of traders lose. Pros know that. Newbies know that. Those who do not trade know that. Millions of trading styles and approaches have been used under heaven, but majority of them seem not to be working. Why? The answer: You alone can determine whether you will become successful or not. Some want to succeed as traders but they get entangled in what can be called self-sabotage. They do exactly what look satisfactory in the short-term, but which cannot help them in the long run. What is then the way out? You simply need to learn the insights, approaches and thoughts of super traders. And when you adapt and apply them to your trading styles, you would also find it easier to deal with the vagaries of the market triumphantly. That is when good strategies you use can work for you. Good strategies cannot work for you if you approach the market with illogical trading psychology. Insights into the Mindset of Super Traders: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html “Insights into the Mindset of Super Traders” reveals the life stories of selected 20 master traders, how they think, how they view the markets, and how they make their fortunes. Some of them are: Lan Turner, who turns simple trading ideas into millions. Dirk Vandycke, who has made thousands of percentage returns simply by accepting the truth about trading. Michelle Williams, a female trader who once won a trading championship Martin Zweig, who was one of the most successful traders of the last century John Arnold, who became so rich that he retired himself at the age of 38, while many older people were still sweating over pensions Bruce Kovner, who is one of the least known billionaire traders Michael Platt, who is an accomplished trading risk manager Martin Schwartz, who lost money for 9 year before becoming a permanently successful trader Louise Bacon, and old veteran trader who tells us his intriguing story Sir John Templeton, who is truthfully the greatest global stock picker of 20th century Look at giants being pursued by cockroaches! May the spell of ignorance on you be broken. There are many future master/pro/expert traders reading this book who are being discouraged by those who are ignorant of the realities in the market. They are being discouraged by temporary setbacks. The providence has ordained you to attain international acclaim through successful speculation, and end up blessing lives, lifting people out of penury and bringing smiles to the face of the dejected. Here you are, oblivious of your trading potential, caught in a rat race. Insights into the Mindset of Super Traders: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader
  4. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 11 – 14, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, this pair moved sideways from Monday till Friday, trending south on Friday. Price closed below the resistance line at 1.0600, going towards the support lines at 1.0550. Rallies in the market are supposed to be temporary in most cases. There remains a bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and there are additional bearish targets at the support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF consolidated in the first few days of last week and then trudged northwards. Price moved upwards 80 pips last week (having gone upwards by 270 pips since March 27). The support levels at 1.0050 and 1.0000 might try to impede short-term pullbacks as price noses towards the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 this week. There cannot be a change in the trend unless EURUSD trends upwards significantly. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The market did not make any directional movement last week, save a shallow bearish movement that was seen on April 7. The market would remain in this newly established equilibrium phase as long as it moves between the accumulation territory at 1.2300 and the distribution territory at 1.2600. A movement above the aforementioned distribution territory or below the accumulation territory would mean a beginning of another bias on the market. However, the most likely movement is towards the north. It is borne in mind that the outlook on GBP pairs is strong bullish for this week – so a bullish breakout may be witnessed on this market before the end of the week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument also consolidated throughout last week, neither moving above the supply level at 111.50 nor moving below the demand level at 110.00. The bias on the market is bearish; plus the outlook on JPY pairs remains bearish for this week and this month. Therefore, when momentum rises in the market, it would most possibly be in favor of bears. Most probably, price would move further downwards once the demand level at 110.00 is breached to the downside. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EURJPY dropped 110 pips last week, testing the demand zone at 117.50 (which was tested several times, though without success). Since March 13, price has dropped roughly 500 pips, and more decline is anticipated this week. One factor aiding the bearishness in this market is the weakness in EUR itself. Once the demand zone at 117.50 is breached to the downside, price could make effort to reach other demand zones at 117.00, 116.50 and 116.00 this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “At the moment I am able to live from my trading income and I hope I can do this for the longer term.” - Matthias Knopf Source: www.tallinex.com
  5. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (April 3 - 7, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went upwards early last week, tested the resistance line at 1.0900 and then nosedived by almost 250 pips. Price is now very close to the support line at 1.0650, which would be breached to the downside as price goes towards another support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550. The outlook on EURUSD, as well as other EUR pairs, is mostly bearish for this week and for this month; though there would be some visible rally attempts in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went upwards last week. Price first moved briefly below the support level at 0.9850 and then rose upwards for the rest of the week, closing above the support level at 1.0000. A movement above the resistance level at 1.0050 would pose a threat to the recent bearish bias; while a movement above the resistance level at 1.0100 would result in a bullish bias. This week and this month, the movements on USDCHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD first moved upwards last week, testing the distribution territory at 1.2600 and then went south, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.2400. Price made several futile attempts to breach that accumulation territory, and later rose up towards the distribution 1.2550. The distribution territories at 1.2600 and 1.2650 could be tested this week, as the market goes further upwards. There would be very strong bearish and bullish movements on GBPUSD this month (which is true of other GBP pairs). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went upwards throughout last week, but that was not significant enough to override the current bearish bias. Price reached the supply level at 112.00 and later closed below the supply level at 111.50. There was an expectation of a very strong bullish movement last week: The market did move upwards but it was only a movement of roughly 170 pips. Price may move further upwards, but that movement would not be strong. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for April 2017. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market consolidated for most of last week, in the context of a downtrend. The consolidation started on March 22 and ended on March 31, when price broke southwards, closing below the supply zone at 119.00. There are immediate targets at the demand zones of 118.50 and 118.00, but the targets may be exceeded. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of April, and as EUR becomes weaker in itself, the market would continue to journey southwards. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A trading strategy is defined by a set of rules. It is following these rules that give the system it’s ‘edge’ over a period of time. This edge produces a result that is better than random, and most importantly produces a profit.” - Jasper Lawler Source: www.tallinex.com
  6. Can you be too stupid to trade and the answer is obviously yes. If you are defeated by how your toaster works then trading is not for you, nor is anything else probably. However, my observation over the decades has been that despite what the industry would have you believe trading is not that hard. The cognitive skills one needs are quite limited, in fact the smarter you are the harder trading seems to be as there is a constant desire to tinker or set off on a quest for the Holy Grail. LB often says that you need to be smart enough to write a trading plan and dumb enough to follow it religiously and this seems about right. What does inevitably defeat people is their own psychology and inability to either adapt or let go of their most deeply held beliefs about trading and themselves. As an example I was in the background when LB had a conversation with a trader recently and this particular individual was so wedded to things they had heard on internet chat forums that they simply couldn’t let them go despite them being wrong. A major point of contention was their belief that you had to get the majority of your trades right or you just couldn’t make money. This is clearly incorrect and can be shown to be show quite quickly. The table below looks at the percentage of winning trades needed to be profitable based upon the average R multiple of each trade. Please visit this link to see the graphs that come with the article: http://tradinggame.com.au/a-question-i-often-ponder/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=7415e3b213-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-7415e3b213-43344013 As you might expect the larger your average R the larger the effective buffer you have to insulate you from being incorrect and since being incorrect is the default state for traders this is a handy thing to know. This is of course a simulation and the real world is a little bit dirtier than this so I went back and looked one of my short term systems for the past four years. Surprisingly, for a short term system it trades quite infrequently. The results presented below are from the S&P/ASX200 which is one of the instruments in the portfolio I trade with this approach. If you were simply judging this system on the number of trades it got right then you would consider it to be a bit of a disappointment but each year it has been profitable. This profitability is based upon catching one or two big moves during the year and simply hanging on. This is what saved the system in 2015 when it made no money for the bulk of the year. This highlights the dichotomy that appears in trading – there are traders who trade for entertainment and part of this is having your ego massaged by thinking you are correct. And then there are those of us who trade simply for money. If I am to be charitable it is quite natural for people to think that you need to get the majority of trades correct in order to win since we are geared to accept reward as being commensurate with being right. All of the above is predicated on two things – they are average returns over time and it is this notion of the deep time needed in trading that causes people difficulty. You have to allow the system time to build momentum and for you to get used to its ebbs and flows. As I seem to repeat endlessly trading is not a lottery you don’t suddenly wake up one day and make $20 million. You grind away over time. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradinggame.com.au Below are some useful quotes from trading experts: ‘”Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don’t have the balls to live in the real world.’ (Mary Shafer -NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA SR-71 Flying Qualities Lead Engineer)… I stumbled across this quote and thought it was the most perfect description of what is required for trading. If you don’t have the nerve to accept that trading is an imperfect, dirty and chaotic endeavor then it is not for you.” – Chris Tate “There are plenty of traders who make their money when a market is not going anywhere. Option sellers who straddle and strangle love markets that are going nowhere at all...” – Andy Jordan “Risk is the most relevant aspect of trading! Risk is the only thing you can control. You cannot control your profits.” – Topsteptrader “Self-mastery makes trading mastery and wealth mastery easy.” – Van Tharp www.tallinex.om wants you to make money from the market.
  7. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 27 – 31, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD managed to hold out its bullishness last week, in spite of the current short-tern consolidation in the market. Price reached the resistance line at 1.0800 and moved sideways till Friday. Many unsuccessful attempts were made to overcome the resistance line at 1.0800, but price could not stay above it. This week, that resistance line could possibly be overcome as another resistance line at 1.0800 is possibly targeted. However, there is also a strong possibility of weakness in the market; unless USD continues to be weak versus EUR. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Price dropped 70 pips last week, testing the support level at 0.9900. Attempts to breach that support level have not been successful, but that could happen this week, as selling pressure continues in the market. Since price has already gone below the psychological level at 1.0000, it would not be easy for it to go above that level again. There are potential targets at the support levels of 0.9850 and 0.9800 this week, which could be reached as long as USDCHF continues its weakness. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD went upwards last week, reaching the distribution territory at 1.2500; and then consolidating till the end of the week. There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the outlook on GBP pairs continues to be bullish, and further bullish movement is expected on GBPUSD this week. The pair would go upwards by a minimum of 150 pips, testing the distribution territories at 1.2550, 1.2600 and 1.2650. . USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This pair dropped 160 pips last week. Since March 10, price has dropped 430 pips, leading to a strong bearish bias on the market, which would continue as long as USDJPY is weak. The demand level at 111.00 was tested several times last week, but price managed to close above it. This week, further southwards movement would happen, once the demand level at 111.00 is breached to the downside. However, there is an indication of probable rallies on JPY pairs before the end of the month, which would also affect USDJPY. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, there was some downwards movement on this cross, which dropped 180 pips to test the demand zone at 119.50. Since March 13, price has dropped 310 pips. There is currently a “sell” signal in the market, which may enable the demand zones at 119.00 and 118.50 to be reached. On the other hand, there could be a rally in the market before the end of the month. This is also expected on other JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It is critical to develop a well thought out and organized trading plan. It is then important to have the discipline needed to follow it… Trading should bring fulfillment of your business and personal goals.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  8. One of the frustrating things about being a trend follower is that it takes time to overcome the inertia of a new system, particularly if that system is based upon slightly longer time periods such as weekly data. Part of the frustration that traders encounter is based upon the simple mechanics of how systems work. A system that is correctly designed takes its losses quickly and allows its profitable trades to simply roll along. This results in the system instantly going into drawdown and it is this drawdown that causes traders to develop friction with their system. This friction often leads to tinkering as they attempt to force the system to give them something it cannot give. This is exacerbated in times of a flat market – you cannot force returns from a market. The All Ords of late has not really been a stand out performer as can be seen from the chart below the market has been slowly grinding its way up in a broad channel. With this in mind I thought I would look at the yearly returns for the various stocks within the All Ords – so I found some data on their percentage returns and stuck it into a frequency histogram to see what the performance of individual stocks looked like. Please visit this link for the charts and images that come with this article: http://tradinggame.com.au/where-is-the-money/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=2e70d91994-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-2e70d91994-43344013 I have a arranged the data into a serious of blocks and did a count of the number that fell into that category. I also calculated the average performance of the group which for this period stood at 17.09%. However, if I drop out the 200% and above outliers this average value falls to 13.04%. As you might have guessed the majority of values cluster around the mean with a long right handed tail. This sort of distribution is common with stocks since we have unlimited upside but limited downside – a stock cannot decline more than 100%. Our psychology dictates that we are instantly drawn to the right hand side of the chart and the extreme outliers that occurred over the past year. And as traders these are the sort of trades that we hope ours might evolve into. However, in doing so we ignore that left hand side of the chart. The majority of stocks (60%) have below average performance. You may assume as a trend follower that this is not an issue since you would avoid these large losses and poor performance by the use of stops but that ignores the reality of the actual trading process. As a mechanical trader you will not incur these losses but you will burn time wading through these non performing stocks before you hit the ones that do perform. You waste time, a little bit of money and a lot of patience dealing with this mediocre performance. My anecdotal experience has been that trading returns are made up of a lot of modest returns and a tiny handful of trades that do very well but to get to the ones that do very well you have to crank through a reasonable number of trades and you have to keep going. This is where the notion of emotional resilience comes into its own in trading and the ability not to tinker with the system hoping that it will generate these sorts of trades. Systems don’t actually generate these sorts of trades – the market does so you cannot actually build a system with the preconceived notion that it will find you trades that generate a 500% return. What the system does do is generate a population of trades, most of which will be duds and hopefully a few large winners. But in the beginning all trades look the same. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of Tradingggame.com.au More helpful quotes from professional traders are added below: “As always the battle is not with the market but with yourself.” – Chris Tate “Get any group of traders together and you will notice that the novices tend to talk about indicators and charting patterns, whilst the professionals discuss trading psychology and money management. In the beginning, you’ll underestimate the importance of these two key areas.” – Louise Bedford “Most people have an “interest” in becoming consistently profitable traders. However, few possess the essential ingredient of “total commitment.” Total commitment is what is demanded for a high level of success from any endeavor. A trader with commitment will take the money away from 100 traders who have only an "interest.” – Joe Ross “In fact I would say trading without a stop is like walking a tight rope without a net. You should always place a stop, not because you expect the market to go against you, but to protect against the unexpected. The worst losses I've seen have resulted from a trader not having a stop order in place and the ensuing deer-in-the-headlights paralysis that sets in once losses start to mount.” – Andy Jordan www.tallinex.com wants you to become a successful trader
  9. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 20 - 24, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair trended downwards on March 13 and 14, testing the support line at 1.0600. From the support line, price rose by 180 pips, going briefly above the resistance line at 1.0750 and then closing below it on Friday. The bullish signal is still in place, and further rise in price may be witnessed this week, which would enable price to go above the resistance line at 1.0750 again. However, it is also possible that EURUSD would trend downwards before the end of this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish As it was forecast last week, the weakness in greenback has caused USD/CHF to fall (as well as the bullishness of EURUSD). Price consolidated from Monday to Wednesday, and later plummeted on that day, to form a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The support level at 0.9950 has already been tested. As long as EURUSD is going up, USDCHF would be going down. On the other hand, whenever EURUSD showcases conspicuous weakness, USDCHF would rally seriously (something that may happen this week or next). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The main reason why Cable was able to rally last week was because USD became week. Before that, bears had met some impediment at the accumulation territory of 1.2150; a territory from which price rose 250 pips to test the distribution territory at 1.2400. There is already a bullish outlook on the market – which would continue to hold out as long as USD is weak enough to allow further rally. Any show of strength in USD would send Cable tumbling. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the last weekly forecast, it was mentioned that any show of weakness in USD would render bullish effort invalid in this market. That was exactly what happened: From the beginning of the week till March 15, price was consolidating. However, price began to trend downwards as USD became weak. There was an overall bearish movement of almost 250 pips last week, between the supply level at 115.00 and the demand level at 112.50. This week, further downwards movement is possible, but not without a possibility of a rally this week or next. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Last week, this cross moved slightly southward by some 150 pips. This contrasted with the recent bullish bias, thus creating a short-term neutral bias on the cross. On Friday, the cross closed around the demand zone at 121.00. Further southward effort may bring price towards another demand zones at 120.50 and 120.00. But it should be noted that the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish, and they would rally before the end of March 2017, especially when JPY itself becomes weak. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Isn't it time you took control of your own trading? Somewhere inside you there is a brilliant trader wanting to come out.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
  10. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 13 - 17, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair trended downwards from Monday to Thursday and then rallied significantly. This has resulted in a bullish bias on the market, as price nearly reached the resistance line at 1.0700. This week, further rally is anticipated because the outlook on Greenback is bearish for the week: a factor that may be favorable to EURUSD. The first target for the week is the resistance line at 1.0700, and then followed by the resistance lines at 1.0750 and 1.0800. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There is still a weak bullish outlook on this pair, though it is currently showing some weakness. As long as EURUSD goes upwards, USDCHF would find it very difficult to go upwards. Price was corrected lower on Friday, and since USD is expected to be weak this week, the support levels at 1.0050 and 1.0000 could be tested. Attempts to breach the resistance level at 1.0150 has already failed and that resistance level would serve as a strong barrier to any bullish effort this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD went south by 140 pips last week. Price has trended downwards by 310 pips since February 27, 2017, resulting in a clear Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There is now a bearish siege at the accumulation territory of 1.2150, which has been battered without any success. While GBP could fall further versus other currencies like CHF, AUD and NZD, it may not fall further versus USD, since USD may experience some weakness this week, coupled with strong obstacles at the accumulation territories of 1.1250 and 1.1200. There is a logical expectation of some rally in GBPUSD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market managed to go upwards last week after moving sideways in the first few trading days of the week. The bias is bullish, though not a strong one. Price closed below the supply level at 115.00 on March 10, and it might make effort to go upwards from there. This week, the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish, but the expected weakness in USD might scuttle bullish effort in the market. There are supply levels at 116.00, 115.50 and 115.00. There are also demand levels at 114.50, 114.00 and 113.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Just like USDJPY, this cross pair moved sideways in the first few days of the last trading week, and then broke upwards in agreement with the recent bullish outlook on the market. From the weekly low of 120.01, price went north by 280 pips, and closed at 122.51 on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and since the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, further movement is expected on EURJPY (a movement of at least, 200 pips). EUR is currently strong in its own right and this is a factor that could help the cross pair upwards. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a business.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  11. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (March 6 - 10, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD went downwards last week, tested the support line at 1.0500, and then rallied significantly on Friday. Actually, the Friday rally might end up being a good opportunity to sell short at better prices (unless the resistance line at 1.0700 is breached to the upside, which would result in bullish signal). This week, price could test the support lines at 1.0450, 1.0400 and 1.0350; for the outlook on EURUSD is bearish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There is still a weak bullish outlook on this pair, though it is currently showing some weakness. Price is now above the support level at 1.0050, and as long as EURUSD continues going downwards, USDCH would continue trudging upwards, possibly reaching the resistance levels at 1.0100 (which was actually tested and breached temporarily last week), 1.0150 and 1.0200. On the other hand, a movement below the support level at 1.0000 would result in a bearish outlook. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD dropped 200 pips last week, briefly moving below the accumulation territory at 1.2250, before bouncing upwards from there. The upward bounce is something that is supposed to be transitory, for the outlook on the market is bearish for this week. The targets to be possibly reached are located at the accumulation territories at 1.2250, 1.2200 and 1.2150. Some other GBP pairs like GBPNZD and GBPAUD might also be seen going bearish this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a bullish bias on this trading instrument, but this is nothing yet over-the-top. Price went upwards from the demand level at 112.00, reaching the supply level at 114.50 (a northwards movement of 250 pips). Since there is some kind of weakness in JPY, it is possible that the supply levels at 115.00, 115.50 and 116.00 would be attained this week. Should that happen, the bullish bias would simply become stronger. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross went north by 270 pips last week. Price rose from the demand zone at 118.50, and closing above the demand zone at 121.00 on March 3. There is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Since the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week, it is anticipated that this EURJPY would continue going upwards, reaching the supply zones at 121.50, 122.00 and 122.50 before the end of this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Traders, by their very nature, are optimistic risk takers. We believe we can make money. We say ‘Yes’ to risk. We say ‘Yes’ to learning about how to trade effectively. We say ‘Yes’ to a brighter future for ourselves and our family.” – Louise Bedford Source: www.tallinex.com
  12. Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (February 27 – March 2, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went south last week, testing the support line at 1.0500, and then bouncing upwards on Thursday and Friday. The upwards bounce would turn out to be a good selling opportunity because price is expected to trend further downwards this week, reaching the support line at 1.0500 again and breaking it to the downside. The outlook on EURUSD (as well as other EUR pairs) is strongly bearish for this week and the month of March. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish There is a weak bullish signal on USDCHF. The signal is weak because price has moved upwards only by about 200 pips in the whole of February. There was an upwards movement last week, which pushed price briefly above the resistance level at 1.0100, before the correction that was witnessed in the last two trading days of the week. There is still a tendency for price to continue going upwards, as long as EURUSD journeys southwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral For at least, three weeks, Cable has been moving sideways, hence the neutral bias on the market. Price has only oscillated between the accumulation territory at 1.2350 and the distribution territory at 1.2600. There is a need for price to go above that distribution territory, staying above it; or below that accumulation territory, staying below it, before the neutral bias can be considered as being over. Until this happens, the bias would remain neutral. There is a possibility that GBP pairs would go considerably bearish in March, though they would make some attempt to rally around the end of that month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument is neutral in the medium-term and bearish in the short-term. Price consolidated last week, and then trended downwards on Thursday and Friday. This is an action that has led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the short-term, which may enable price to reach the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.000. This does not rule out a possibility of a rally, since some serious bullish effort is expected on most JPY pairs in March. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a strong bearish signal on this cross, which has moved downwards by 350 pips so far this month. The market went southwards 150 pips this week, closing below the supply zone at 118.50. The demand zones at 118.00 and 117.50 could also be tested this week. On the other hand, a serious weakness in Yen may cause price to jump upwards, which is something that would possibly happen in the March. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “A good plan will include a well-tested strategy, a trading method, or a setup. Having a positive expectation should allow you to have the confidence to start trading your plan.” – Andy Jordan Source: www.tallinex.com
  13. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 20 - 24, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this pair went downwards, moving below briefly below the support line at 1.0550. Price then rallied above the resistance line at 1.0650, before getting corrected lower on Friday. The outlook on the market is bearish, and further bearish movement is expected this week, as price targets the support lines at 1.0550 (which was tested last week), 1.0500 and 1.0450. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Oddly enough, the current outlook on USDCHF is bearish, just like the outlook on EURUSD. One of the reasons behind this is occasional bouts of stamina in CHF, which sometimes put checks on USDCHF bullish ambitions. The market level at 1.0000 has now become insignificant, since price just goes above and below it at will. For example, price went below it on February 16, only to go above it on February 17. Only a very strong bearish plunge on EURUSD would help push USDCHF upwards considerably. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD has been moving sideways for at least, two weeks. The market did nothing noteworthy last week. This directionless movement would soon end, and a strong momentum would rise, pushing price in a clear direction. A closer look at the market shows that bears’ hands are currently stronger than bulls’ hands, and following the ongoing impasse, price could plunge southwards. The outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, price moved upwards from February 9 – 15, and then began to pull back from that day. On February 17, price closed below the demand level at 113.000, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The targets for this week are the demand levels at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50. This, however, does not rule out a possibility of a strong rally before the end of the month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. The market consolidated from Monday to Friday and then started moving downwards as it plunged by over 120 pips that day. This is in agreement with the southward movement that was started in the beginning of this month; plus further southward movement is possible. On the other hand, a possibility of a serious rally still remains… on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “For some traders, commitment to success is not optional but mandatory.” – Joe Ross Source: www.tallinex.com
  14. I was having a catch up with my good mate and uber cool pad holder Jarrod yesterday – we both share a fascination with human performance. We are both interested in what we can get out of the machine we wander around in all day. As part of this quest he had recently been to see a dietitian who works with several AFL clubs and during the conversation they mentioned that as part of their regime they didn’t count calories. We both thought this was odd for the simple reason that without data you are operating in a vacuum, without knowledge about your calorie intake and in particular your intake of various macro nutrients you are simply guessing. And guessing simply doesn’t count when it come to assessing change.The point here is obvious, if you are not in some way tracking the performance of your trading then you have no means by which to judge your performance. Without having a series of metrics that tell you how you are doing then you are also operating in a state of ignorance and in many cases delusion. I understand that some people dont want to track their system since this would defeat the entertainment component of trading. Knowing how badly you are doing would take the fun out of it. The same is true for people who struggle with their weight – they dont want to know how badly they are doing. Ignorance is bliss.Performance tracking does not have to be complex – it only needs to tell you a simple story, how many trades did you get wrong, how many did you get right, what is your average profit/loss per trade and do you have more money at the end of the year than at the beginning. All this can be achieved in a spreadsheet with a little bit of playing around.Author: Chris TateI’d like to end this article with some quotes:“Be careful! It doesn't matter how good you are, if you don't use proper risk management you will fail.” - Jarratt Davis “Having a diversified system does help but it does still make you wary of taking the next trade. But it always seems to be the next trade that you don’t take that turns things around.” – Chris TateArticle reproduced with kind permission of http://tradinggame.com.au www.tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
  15. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 13 - 17, 2017) Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair trended downwards last week, going below the resistance line at 1.0650. The movement so far this month is essentially bearish and there is a possibility that further bearish movement would continue to hold out, as the support lines at 1.0600, 1.0550 and 1.0500 are targeted this week. There is a need for price to go above the resistance line at 1.0800 before the current outlook can be rendered invalid. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF is bearish in the medium-term, and bullish in the short-term. In the short-term, price has moved from the support level at 0.9900, towards the resistance level at 1.0050. This has already generated a short-term bullish signal, and a movement above another resistance level at 1.0150 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. It is important to note that price has succeeded in breaching the great level at 1.0000 to the upside, making more bullish movement very likely. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD is currently in an equilibrium phase – having moved generally sideways last week (though price was volatile on February 7). While the market could remain in the equilibrium phase, there is going to be a serious breakout this week or next, which would most probably favor bears. The outlook on GBP pairs for this month remains bearish and heavy selling pressure could start anytime. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The bullish expectation for JPY pairs did not materialize last week, save a weak rally that was seen on Thursday. The bias on the market is still bearish, and price could attempt to test the demand levels at 112.50 and 112.00. On the other hand, the bullish expectation on JPY pairs are still in place: JPY pairs could assume strong rallies any day this week or next; with USDJPY being caught in a strong buying pressure. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this cross pair went down 180 pips, testing the demand zone at 119.50. Price has been making some negligible bullish attempt since then, rallying by 170 pips and getting corrected lower on Friday. This kind of alternative but transient victories between the bull and the bear would continue until there is a protracted, directional movement, which is expected to be in favor of the bull. Short trades are may not be held onto for too long. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “By the way, the absolute best trading opportunities these days are in Forex.” – Dr. Van K. Tharp Source: www.tallinex.com